Undecideds to decide election
County Republicans like Bush but are cool on Crist
By PETER GUINTA
peter.guinta@staugustine.com
Publication Date: 07/24/08
Two incumbent St. Johns County Commission candidates lead their opponents ,and a third commission seat is a statistical dead heat but the number of undecided voters is so large that they'll decide the fate of the commission candidates, a local survey of 880 likely Republican voters indicated this week.
The poll found:
* Incumbent county commissioners Cyndi Stevenson and Ben Rich lead in their races.
* District 5 candidates Ken Bryan, Randy Brunson and Gary McMahon are in a statistical dead heat.
* President Bush is viewed in a positive light by 66.7 percent of the participants.
* Less than 50 percent see Florida Gov. Charlie Crist favorably.
* About a quarter of the respondents view both in an unfavorable light.
* Republican candidate John McCain would be chosen by 87 percent, Barack Obama by 11 percent.
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Only Republicans were polled, but because St. Johns County contains 65,929 registered Republican voters -- 52.9 percent of the total 124,660 voters -- the party essentially controls county politics.
Democrats number 34,053, or 27.3 percent; nonpartisan voters 19,519, or 16.7 percent; and other parties 5,159, or 4.1 percent.
In the presidential poll, independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr both registered less than 3 percent, undecideds 10 percent.
The poll was conducted July 17 and 18 by Dixie Strategies LLC of St. Augustine, a company that is co-owned by Jon Woodard, the sitting Republican State Committeeman for St. Johns.
Woodard said he wanted to learn how his own re-election campaign for state committeeman was going. But then he added questions to the survey about County Commission races because, he said, "I was curious."
The survey asked: If the commission election were held today, for whom would you vote?
For District 1, incumbent Cyndi Stevenson got 34.88 percent and challenger Albert J. Abbatiello got 18.37 percent. That means 46.75 percent were undecided, the highest undecided percentage of any question.
A third District 1 candidate, Merrill Roland, was not included in this survey because he isn't a Republican and because he faces the District 1 primary winner in November.
For District 3, incumbent Ben Rich got 36.05 percent, Mark P. Miner 21.82 percent and undecided 42.13 percent.
For District 5, Ken Bryan got 20.27 percent; Gary McMahon 19.49 percent and Randy Brunson, 16.37 percent.
Undecideds here were 43.87 percent.
Woodard said the margin of error in the District 5 race is plus or minus 4.3 percent, meaning the District 5 race is essentially even.
"This poll was not commissioned by any candidate or party," Woodard said. "We have no business with any of these candidates. But if I were one of them, this poll would tell me a lot. If I found myself behind, I'd step up my efforts. If I were ahead, it might be easier to raise money. It can be used both ways."
Dixie Strategies first compiled a random sample of likely GOP voters and gave lists of their telephone numbers to a subcontractor who did the actual calling for the survey. The information on Woodard's race was removed from the poll information that was released.
Statistics Professor Ed McDonald of St. Johns River Community College said this poll was "pretty darn accurate," even though there wasn't a large sample. McDonald said he taught Woodard the model for this poll and the mathematics behind sampling an audience to get an accurate picture of voters' choices.
Sampling means finding willing, qualified respondents from all areas of the county, sometimes taking into account factors such as race, age, gender or economic level.
"This information could be helpful to Republican candidates and give them guidance," McDonald said. "Candidates in local elections often don't get quality sampling and information."
What is certainly remarkable about the Bush question is that even after eight high-profile years in office -- Hurricane Katrina and the FEMA debacle, the nation-searing tragedy of Sept. 11, 2001, and the endless war in Iraq -- a solid 10 percent of Republicans here still remain undecided about how they feel about their president.
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