The Hill: Under pressure: Parties aim to push their opponents into early retirement

Under pressure: Parties aim to push their opponents into early retirement
By Aaron Blake
Posted: 04/20/09 05:18 PM [ET]

Republicans Reps. Bill Young and Mike Castle were given big incentives last week to retire, when top-tier opponents announced they would run against the popular longtime politicians.

And they’re not the only ones who could face a choice between a tough reelection race and retirement.

House Democrats and Republicans alike are focused this cycle on putting pressure on certain incumbents thought to be potential retirees. Democrats are doing it because they have basically run out of viable targets. Republicans are going after Democrats with everything they’ve got and hoping an aggressive tack will pay dividends in 2010.

Young (Fla.) and Castle (Del.) are two of Democrats’ top foils — both because their districts are most likely to flip once the seats are open and because both men will be septuagenarians on Election Day 2010, with Young close to 80 years old. Democrats landed Florida state Sen. Charlie Justice and former Delaware Lt. Gov. John Carney to run against them, respectively.

The party insists it can go after both men even if they don’t retire — or, in Castle’s case, if he runs for Senate — but the odds dramatically increase if they are open-seat scenarios.

Justice acknowledged that an open seat would change the calculus for a lot of people, but insisted that he couldn’t wait around for Young to make a decision.

“Certainly, an open seat will draw some interest,” Justice said. “But with the time that you really need to run a campaign like this and get out and communicate with the voters, we felt that we needed as much time as possible.

“He’s been in Washington for 40 years. I think he’ll make his own decision.”

Young, the longest-serving GOPer in the House, won with 61 percent of the vote in 2008 and has routinely taken two-thirds or more. But his district went 52-47 for President Obama last year and has steadily shifted toward Democrats.

Young toyed with retirement two years ago but ultimately decided early in 2008 to run again. He has said he has no plans to retire but won’t make a final decision until next year.

But while he deliberates, he’s not raising money. And if he were to bow out late, his GOP replacement could be at a significant financial and organizational disadvantage to Justice. That puts GOP leaders in the uncomfortable position of begging their longest-serving member to decide his future sooner rather than later.

“A lot of people have been expecting that his seat would open up, but I think what a lot of Republicans didn’t anticipate was somebody like Justice would jump in so quickly and dare Young to announce his retirement earlier than he might have liked to,” said Susan McManus, a political science professor at the Tampa-based University of South Florida, where Justice serves as an academic adviser.

In Delaware, Castle is a popular former governor who also won with 61 percent of the vote in November, even as Obama took 62 percent in his state. And Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling surveyed the match-up last month, showing Castle leading Carney by 17 points, 49-32.

It’s feasible that Castle could either retire or run for his state’s open Senate seat, giving him two options that would lead to an open House seat. He raised just more than $70,000 in the first quarter, which is not a big number for any congressional race.

Castle and Young were also Democratic targets in 2008, with no success. The majority party was able to apply some pressure successfully in other districts, though, helping usher Reps. Jim Saxton (R-N.J.) and Ralph Regula (R-Ohio) into retirement with strong recruits and then swiping their seats.

This cycle, top Democratic targets for retirement include Reps. Henry Brown Jr. (R-S.C.), Judy Biggert (R-Ill.), Ginny Brown-Waite (R-Fla.), John McHugh (R-N.Y.), Mary Bono Mack (R-Calif.), John Mica (R-Fla.), Elton Gallegly (R-Calif.) and Don Manzullo (R-Ill.).

Democrats have also sought to encourage Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.) to run for governor by signing up self-funder Doug Pike to run for Gerlach’s House seat.

“Republicans who haven’t fought a tough race in years may have to dust off their political operations and get ready to face an aggressive challenger,” said a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), Jennifer Crider.

For Republicans, the approach is somewhat newer. They are trying to branch out beyond their emphasis on districts that went for them in the presidential election, acknowledging that they need to have strong challengers wherever they can find them as they attempt to recover from two disastrous election cycles.

Republicans have included some unusual suspects in their early robocalls and advertising across the country, including Reps. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.), Bart Stupak (D-Mich.), Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.), Vic Snyder (D-Ark.), Loretta Sanchez (D-Calif.) and Ben Chandler (D-Ky.). Top potential opponents have already emerged against DeFazio and Sanchez, in former Springfield, Ore., Mayor Sid Leikin and Golden State Assemblyman Van Tran, but neither has officially entered the race yet.

Most of the Democrats on the GOP’s list are considered potential statewide candidates, and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is more than happy to push them into seeking promotions.

“This is about creating new opportunities in places that might seem unconventional at first glance, but where the right candidate could make a race competitive,” NRCC spokesman Ken Spain said.