Model Shows High Probability of Oil Spill Hitting South Florida and the Keys

Model shows high chance of oil hitting South Fla.
NOAA: Probability of oil impacts to local shore is low
Posted: July 3, 2010 - 12:06am

By KIM CHIPMAN

WASHINGTON -- Miami and the Florida Keys face a 61 percent to 80 percent chance of being hit with tar balls from BP Plc's oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, according to U.S. projections.

Shorelines with the greatest chance of being soiled by oil, 81 percent to 100 percent, stretch from the Mississippi River Delta to the western Panhandle of Florida, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Friday in a statement on its projection for the next four months.

Much of Florida's west coast has a "low probability" of "oiling" from the leak that began with an explosion on a BP-leased drilling rig on April 20, the agency said.

The Florida Keys, Miami and Fort Lauderdale face a greater risk because oil may be caught up in the Loop Current, a flow of warm water that snakes into the Gulf and then moves east, NOAA said. Scientists say the current could carry the oil at a speed of about 100 miles a day around the tip of Florida, potentially fouling the Keys and Miami Beach.

Any oil reaching South Florida would already be in an advanced stage of degradation.

Rachel Wilhelm, a spokeswoman for NOAA, said the amount of oil seen in South Florida could range widely.

"We're talking about light sheens and streamers and tar balls perhaps the size of dime to maybe the size of your fist," Wilhelm said. "Certainly not what you're seeing in the Gulf right now -- we're talking about very weathered, highly dispersed oil."

The chance of oil reaching east-central Florida and the Eastern Seaboard are 20 percent to less than 1 percent, according to NOAA. The likelihood that areas north of North Carolina are hit becomes "increasingly unlikely," the agency said