The dull Republicans' corporate codlock on our captive Flori-DUH State Legislature must end. It could end next year, by votes in Seminole County.
We must count all the votes.
The Orlando Sentinel reports that "Democrats are already falling behind in their efforts to pick up the ostensibly swing seat."
Like cowboy comedian Will Rogers, "I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a Democrat."
Senate race in Seminole County could tip balance of power in Tallahassee
GOP Rep. Jason Brodeur has amassed a big lead in fundraising for state Senate District 9. (Steve Cannon / Associated Press)
TALLAHASSEE – The balance of power in the Florida Senate could hinge on the outcome of a race in Seminole County next year, but Democrats are already falling behind in their efforts to pick up the ostensibly swing seat.
On paper, Democrats should have high hopes of winning Senate District 9, which includes all of Seminole County and part of southwest Volusia County. It’s currently held by GOP Sen. David Simmons, who can’t run again because of term limits.
Much of it overlaps with Democratic U.S. Rep. Stephanie Murphy’s congressional district, and Democrats have been making inroads in Seminole the past few years.
But 15 months away from the election, former Republican state Rep. Jason Brodeur of Sanford, who served in the House from 2010-2018, is miles ahead in fundraising and name recognition. Since 2016 he’s raised more than $2 million and spent more than $1.5 million between his campaign and political committee accounts combined.
Brodeur’s only opposition so far is Democrat Rick Ashby, who has raised $2,100 – most of it coming from a $1,600 personal loan – and spent $1,800.
Democrats, though, believe they’ll have enough time to get an opponent more prominent than Ashby to face Brodeur and back that person with spending by the party and outside groups.
“We’re confident we’ll have the resources to compete and a strong candidate to take on and defeat Jason Brodeur,” said Anders Croy, spokesman for Senate Victory, the group leading Democratic Senate campaign efforts.
Republicans currently hold a 23-17 advantage in the Senate over Democrats. If Democrats manage to pick up three seats next year, they’ll gain a 20-20 split and vital leverage in any redistricting talks that will redraw congressional and legislative districts in 2022.
The last time there was a 20-20 split, after the 1992 elections, the parties agreed to split their time in control of the Senate, with a Republican becoming Senate President for 1993 and a Democrat taking over for 1994.The Democrats are targeting two seats in particular – one in Miami-Dade County and the Seminole district, where Democrat Andrew Gillum lost to Republican Ron DeSantis in the governor’s race last year by just 0.5 percent.
“It’s a true, tough battleground district,” said Tallahassee-based Democratic consultant Steve Schale. “It’s going to take a candidate with the right kind of profile and the right kind of relationships in the district.”
Political and legal grounds have shifted since the last redistricting court cases in Florida, where the Florida Supreme Court rejected the initial congressional and state Senate maps drawn by the GOP-led Legislature, ruling they were drawn to favor Republicans.
Democrats were able to pick up a handful of legislative and congressional seats in the eventual district maps approved by the court.
DeSantis’ appointment of three justices has resulted in a 6-1 conservative majority, wiping out the 4-3 liberal majority on the bench that rejected the redistricting plan. The court could overturn the precedents established in 2015 regarding the anti-gerrymandering Fair Districts amendments passed by voters in 2010, allowing for more GOP-friendly maps – if Republicans maintain control of the Senate.
Liberal groups such as the League of Women Voters, who were successful in their previous redistricting lawsuits, might not fare better in federal court either. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in June that it won’t review partisan gerrymandering cases, although it can still review maps for racial bias.
That reality has increased the stakes for the SD 9 race beyond the importance of a lone Senate seat.
“2020 is a critical election at every level of the ballot,” Croy said. “Redistricting definitely hangs over this cycle and Senate Victory feels the map is favorable for Democrats to pick up at least two seats and continue our march to the majority.”
Brodeur realizes redistricting is on the horizon as well and feels the pressure to keep the seat in GOP hands. Despite his lead in fundraising, he said he’s not taking anything for granted.
“I can see the maps just like everybody else. We recognize this is not going to be a gimme,” Brodeur said.
Since January 2017 Brodeur has raised $453,500 directly for his campaign account, where individual contributions are capped at $1,000, and spent $232,500, mostly on web ads, consultants and campaign staff and infrastructure.
His political committee, Friends of Jason Brodeur PC, which can receive unlimited individual contributions, has raised $1.73 million and has spent $1.37 million since April 2016, mostly on donations to other GOP campaigns and consultants.
Although Brodeur has spent a lot already, he’s shown he can raise plenty in a hurry, too, with a long list of familiar donors with business before the Legislature making contributions. He pulled in nearly $50,000 to his political committee in July, including $10,000 from a subsidiary of Orlando-based Darden Restaurants, owner of Olive Garden and other brands.
Democrats say there’s plenty of time to recruit a viable challenger to Brodeur as official qualifying isn’t until June 8-12 for legislative races.
“Democrats are smart to try to find the right candidate versus trying to find the first candidate,” Schale said.
But he also acknowledged it can be difficult to recruit in places like Seminole, where Republicans have had a historical advantage despite the recent success of Murphy. There still isn’t a ready-made “pipeline” of Democratic city commissioners and school board members on hand to jump into an expensive, heated Senate race, he said.
Meanwhile, Brodeur has been knocking on doors throughout the district since the start of the summer. He believes the legwork he’s putting in now will insulate him in case there are any negative political headwinds blowing against Trump and the GOP at the national level come November 2020.
He said he can get his message – on workforce education, the environment, education and jobs – directly to voters without interference from an attacking opponent.
“For candidates (who) want to differentiate themselves, this is a good time to be out and making sure people (who) maybe have never voted for you before are getting a chance to know you,” Brodeur said.
grohrer@orlandosentinel.com or (850) 222-5564
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