U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., is in a tighter-than-expected contest with his leading Democratic challenger, former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

A Florida Atlantic University Poll released Wednesday shows Scott with support from 45% of likely voters. Mucarsel-Powell has 43%. Effectively that’s a tie, within the survey’s margin of error.

The contest between Scott and Mucarsel-Powell is much tighter — a difference of just 2 percentage points among likely voters — than it was in FAU’s last statewide poll in April.

Scott had support of 53% of likely voters in the previous poll, 17 points ahead of Mucarsel-Powell’s 36%.

“In April, a lot of people didn’t know who Mucarsel-Powell was. Her name recognition has improved considerably. With that, the support for her has improved,” said Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist.

“If that trend line holds it suggests that it could be a competitive race,” he said, adding that it is still early to make that assessment. “It’s still June, so we’ll see how that turns out.”

Wagner is also co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab, a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science, which conducted the poll.

Scott’s reelection contest hasn’t garnered as much attention as other key U.S. Senate races from national political prognosticators, given Florida’s increasingly Republican leanings.

Democrats had a voter registration advantage when he was first elected to the Senate in 2018; now Republicans are far ahead of Democrats.

And Scott is the wealthiest member of the U.S. Senate, with an estimated net worth of $300 million. He has shown in previous races — including two successful campaigns for Florida governor — that he is willing to spend his own money on his political efforts.

Mucarsel-Powell, who served one term in Congress before she was defeated in 2020, isn’t especially well known statewide. She’s the leading Democratic candidate, but faces an August primary.

The most recent reports from nonpartisan analysts have Scott favored to win.

The nonpartisan Inside Elections rates the Florida contest as “solid Republican,” and both the Cook Political Report and the Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics both list it as “likely” Republican.

A matchup between Scott and Mucarsel-Powell isn’t quite as close when considering all voters, as opposed to likely voters.

Among all voters, Scott had 44% to 40% for Mucarsel-Powell. In April it was 51% to 35%.

Among likely voters in the June poll, there weren’t any significant differences among men and women.

Both Scott and Mucarsel-Powell performed better among voters aged 50 and older than among voters under age 50.

Among younger voters, 21% said they were undecided or preferred another candidate. Among voters 50 and older, 6% said they were undecided or preferred another candidate.

Democrats overwhelmingly favored Mucarsel-Powell and Republicans overwhelmingly favored Scott. The incumbent also had a significant advantage among independent voters, 48% to 30%.

The Senate is closely divided and many analysts see it likely to switch from Democratic to Republican control. Scott has already announced, assuming he wins reelection, that he’s a candidate for Republican Senate leader following the November elections.

Trump remains ahead

The FAU poll found that former President Donald Trump continues to lead President Joe Biden in Florida.

Among likely voters, Trump has 49% to 43% for Biden, a lead of 6 percentage points.

In April, Trump led 51% to 43%, an advantage of 8 points.

Many political analysts see Trump as heavily favored to win Florida’s 30 electoral votes. Dukhong Kim, an FAU political scientist, said in a statement that the numbers suggest that Biden has “kept the race competitive” in Florida.

The overall parameters of the Florida contest don’t change much when factoring in Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s third-party candidacy.

When the pollsters put him in the mix, Trump had 45% of likely voters to 40% for Biden and 8% for Kennedy.

Wagner said it’s still too early to assess Kennedy’s impact on the contest. It’s still early enough that “people feel comfortable trying out third party candidates. That tends to decline pretty sharply when you get toward November.”

2026 governor

A month ago, Gov. Ron DeSantis downplayed the notion that his wife, Casey, might run to succeed him in 2026 when he can’t run again because of term limits. He said she had “zero” interest in running for governor.

But plenty of Florida Republicans continue to like the idea.

Pollsters asked who they’d support for governor if the election were held today.

By far the largest share, 43%, cited Casey DeSantis.

Three other candidates were in double digits: Congressman Byron Donalds, 19%; state Attorney General Ashley Moody, 14%; and Congressman Matt Gaetz, with 13%.

None has said they are running; all are seen as considering the possibility.

Donalds has been receiving enormous publicity as he’s been on the campaign trail in support of Trump and considered as a long-shot candidate for vice president; Gaetz, the firebrand Panhandle Republican was instrumental in the ouster of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy; and Moody has been a champion of DeSantis’ priorities in her role as state AG.

Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, also seen as eyeing the governor’s race, was the choice of just 5%. Pollsters didn’t ask about another potential candidate, Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson.

One takeaway from the results, Wagner said, is the strength of the DeSantis brand among Florida Republicans.

“The DeSantis name, especially in the Republican Party, is very, very powerful,” he said.

Issues

The top issue for Florida voters in the presidential election is the economy, cited by 38% of Florida voters, followed by immigration at 25%, and abortion with 15%.

Democrats, Republicans, independents, men and women all cited the economy as their top choice.

Abortion was by far the No. 2 issue for Democrats, and immigration was by far the No. 2 issue for Republicans and independents.

The economy was overwhelmingly the top issue for voters under age 50, cited by 50%. Among older voters, 29% said immigration was their top issue and 29% said the economy was their top issue.

Fine print

The poll of 878 Florida adults was conducted June 8 and 9 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab.

The survey used an online panel and automated phone calls to reach other voters. It has a margin of error equivalent to plus or minus 3 percentage points.

However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats, or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.