FREEDOM WORKS. The American people know the difference between right and wrong. Yes we can! From Forbes:

Trump vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads By More Than 5 Points In Latest Survey

TOPLINE

Vice President Kamala Harris beats former President Donald Trump in at least eight surveys taken after the Democratic National Convention, adding to her winning polling streak and expanding her edge on Trump since last month—though the size of her lead remains unchanged since before the convention.

KEY FACTS

Harris was up more than five points in both two-way (52.6% to 47.4%) and five-way (49.5% to 44%) matchups with third-party candidates on the ballot, according to an Outward Intelligence survey of 2,191 likely voters taken Aug. 25-29

Harris led Trump 47%-45% if third-party candidates were included or 48%-47% head-to-head in a Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday, marking the first time in over a year Trump has trailed in a Journal survey—a reversal from Trump’s 49%-47% head-to-head edge a month ago (the poll surveyed registered voters from Aug. 24-28, margin of error 2.5 points).

Harris had a 49%-47% edge in Quinnipiac’s first poll of likely voters, within the poll’s 2.4-point margin of error, as Trump and Harris split independents 45%-45% (the poll—taken Aug. 23-27—allowed respondents to pick third-party candidates, and in a head-to-head race, Harris’ lead shrinks to 49%-48%).

The vice president led Trump by five points—48%-43%—among likely voters in a Suffolk/USA Today poll taken Aug. 25-28, a massive shift from Trump’s 41%-38% lead over President Joe Biden shortly after Biden’s rough debate performance in June (the latest survey’s margin of error is 3.1 points).

Harris had a 45%-41% lead in an Ipsos/Reuters poll of registered voters released Aug. 29, outpacing the poll’s 2-point margin of error, and expanding Harris’ one-point advantage in late July (another Ipsos poll that didn’t include Reuters recorded a 5-point Harris lead in early August).

Harris has made gains among women and Black, Hispanic and younger voters in the last month, the two latest surveys found.

A handful of other surveys taken this week showed Harris’ lead virtually unchanged since the Democratic National Convention: She led Trump by two points in an Economist/YouGov poll (similar to three points a week earlier and two points two weeks ago), and just one point in a Yahoo News/YouGov poll (compared to a tie shortly after the Republican National Convention, when Biden remained in the race).

Harris leads Trump by a larger margin—48% to 44%—in an Aug. 23-25 Morning Consult survey of registered voters, findings that mirror the group’s Aug. 16-18 survey taken before the Democratic National Convention, which concluded last week in Chicago.

Surveys have broadly shown a shift in Democrats’ favor since Harris’ entrance into the race last month.

In the days leading up to the DNC, Harris led Trump 49%-45% among registered voters and 51%-45% among likely voters in a poll by Ipsos, ABC News and The Washington Post, while Harris had a 51%-48% edge among likely voters according to CBS and YouGov, and a 50%-46% lead in an Emerson College poll of likely voters.

Just one major poll in recent weeks, taken by Fox News and released Aug. 15, found Trump leading, 50% to 49% among registered voters.

BIG NUMBER

1.6. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Harris with a 3.4-point lead.

CONTRA

Trump led Harris in at least eight other polls after Biden dropped out of the race, but most show Harris denting Trump’s lead and her approval rating ticking up since she announced her candidacy. Trump led Harris by one point (48% to 47%) in a New York Times/Siena poll conducted July 22-24, and by two points (47% to 45%) in a HarrisX/Forbesonline survey released June 26.

SURPRISING FACT

A Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14 found Democratic enthusiasm has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%.

HOW DOES HARRIS PERFORM AGAINST TRUMP IN SWING STATES?

Harris leads Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a Cook Political Report survey. Harris leads Trump in five of the seven states, is tied with him in Georgia and is trailing Trump by three points in Nevada, the Cook poll found.

CONTRA

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a “short term” bump in polls for Harris in the coming weeks as her entrance into the race is expected to reenergize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a “Harris Honeymoon” in a memo released shortly after a Reuters/Ipsos poll was made public.

KEY BACKGROUND

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party has quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call prior to the convention. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president at the start of the Republican National Convention on July 18. Democrats held their convention Aug. 19-22 in Chicago.

Clean Up City of St. Augustine, Florida

Saturday, August 31, 2024