Friday, July 27, 2018

2018 Q3 Earnings Presentation of D.R. Horton (DHI), which wants to destroy Fish Island

D.R. HORTON (NYSE: DHI) is a housing construction monopolist, which wants to destroy Fish Island.

On July 3, 2018, DHI's expert lied about the presence of bald eagles and a nest it falsely claimed was "abandoned."  

I filed an SEC securities fraud complaint about this false testimony.

DHI's perjury will be explored at the August 7, 2018 PZB meeting on its meretricious Planned Unit Development (PUD).



On July 3, 2018, the day before Independence Day, ROGERS TOWERS partner ELLEN AVERY-SMITH, on behalf of Texas billionaire DONALD R. HORTON and St. Augustine landowner PIERRE THOMPSON, presented false testimony that bald eagle nest number SJ019 on Fish Island is "abandoned."

The bald eagle is our national symbol, no longer endangered but still a threatened species, legally protected by two federal criminal laws, the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act and Migratory Bird Treaty Act.

In fact, during the 2017-2018 season, the "abandoned" bald eagle nest was shown to be an active bald eagle nest, with a nesting pair and babies.   


Unrebutted testimony from our  Matanzas Riverkeeper, Jen Lemberk, St. Johns County Audubon Society President Amy Koch, Audubon Eagle Watch expert Rhonda Lovett and eco-tour guide Adam Morley ALL verified the presence of eagles, with time-stepped photos (17MAR2018 13:15; 13:17; 13:19) admitted into evidence by PZB:






Here is DHI's revealing FY 2018 third quarter earnings presentation -- it made a whopping twelve cents a share!




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Investor Presentation
1
Q3 FY 2018
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D.R. HORTON, INC.
By closings volume for calendar years 2002 to 2017 2
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FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This presentation may include “forward‐looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although D.R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different. Factors that may cause the actual results to be materially different from the future results expressed by the forward‐looking statements include, but are not limited to: the cyclical nature of the homebuilding industry and changes in economic, real estate and other conditions; constriction of the credit markets, which could limit our ability to access capital and increase our costs of capital; reductions in the availability of mortgage financing provided by government agencies, changes in government financing programs, a decrease in our ability to sell mortgage loans on attractive terms or an increase in mortgage interest rates; the risks associated with our land and lot inventory; our ability to effect our growth strategies, acquisitions or investments successfully; home warranty and construction defect claims; the effects of a health and safety incident; the effects of negative publicity; supply shortages and other risks of acquiring land, building materials and skilled labor; the impact of an inflationary, deflationary or higher interest rate environment; reductions in the availability of performance bonds; increases in the costs of owning a home; the effects of governmental regulations and environmental matters on our homebuilding operations; the effects of governmental regulations on our financial services operations; our significant debt and our ability to comply with related debt covenants, restrictions and limitations; competitive conditions within the homebuilding and financial services industries; the effects of the loss of key personnel; and information technology failures and data security breaches. Additional information about issues that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in D.R. Horton’s annual report on Form 10‐K and our most recent quarterly report on Form 10‐Q, both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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D.R. HORTON, INC.
TRADED ON NYSE AS DHI
50,348
$15.7 billion
$1.9 billion
Annual homes closed
Annual consolidated revenues
Annual pre‐tax income
19.1%
$8.6 billion
$22.80
Homebuilding return on inventory*
Stockholders’ equity
Book value per common share
As of or for the twelve‐month period ended June 30, 2018
*See slide 12 for definition of homebuilding return on inventory
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BROAD NATIONAL FOOTPRINT 80 MARKETS | 26 STATES
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BROAD NATIONAL FOOTPRINT
80 MARKETS | 26 STATES
EAST
MIDWEST
SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTHWEST
WEST
Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, North and South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia
Colorado Illinois Minnesota
Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Tennessee
Louisiana Oklahoma Texas
Arizona New Mexico
California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington
12%
29%
27%
25%
24%
HB Revenue
Inventory
5% 5%
6% 5%
24%
25%
As of or for the twelve‐month period ended June 30, 2018
Savannah, Georgia is included in the East Region; Atlanta and Augusta, Georgia are included in the Southeast Region
6
13%
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DIVERSE PRODUCT OFFERINGS AND PRICE POINTS
Represents homes closed for the twelve months ended 6/30/18
7
Homes for entry‐level, move‐up, active adult and luxury buyers
27%
$200k
7%
16%
$500k $0
$300k
$250k
30%
20%
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FAMILY OF BRANDS
FIRST TIME / MOVE UP
ENTRY LEVEL
LUXURY
ACTIVE ADULT
80 markets | 26 states ASP $322k
60 markets | 21 states ASP $243k
34 markets | 14 states ASP $629k
27 markets | 15 states ASP $263k
Based on Q3 FY 2018 results
8
3%3%
3%2%
7% 2%
37% Homes Sold
37%
Homes Closed
29%
Home Sales Revenue
57%
58%
62%
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MANAGEMENT TENURE AND EXPERIENCE
Executive team and region presidents
25 years
Division presidents
14 years
City managers
over 10 years
Average employee tenure
9
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MARKET SHARE DOMINANCE
18% 16% 14% 12% 10%
50
40
30
20
10 
14
41
8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
32 27
D.R. Horton Share and Rankings in Largest U.S. Housing Markets
Top 5 Markets
Top 50 Markets
DFWDHI Market Share Next Ranking Competitor Market Share
#1
Top 5
Top 10
Operate In
Houston
Atlanta
Phoenix
Austin
Source: Builder magazine ‐ 2018 Local Leaders issue, rankings based on homes closed in calendar 2017
10
0
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HOMEBUILDING OPERATIONAL FOCUS
• Maximize returns by managing inventories, sales pace and pricing in each community
• Generate consistent positive annual cash flow from operations
• Maintain inventories of land, lots and homes that support double‐digit annual growth in both revenues and profits
• Underwriting expectations for each community:• Minimum 20% annual pre‐tax return on inventory (ROI)• Initial cash investment returned within 24 months or less
• Increase optioned land and lots by expanding relationships with land developers• Grow Forestar’s land development platform
• Control SG&A while ensuring infrastructure supports growth
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EMPHASIS ON RETURN ON INVENTORY (ROI)
20%
15%
16.3%
16.6%
10%
5%
0%
12.8%
FY 2015
FY 2016
TTM 6/30/17
FY 2017
TTM 6/30/18
Steady improvement in Homebuilding ROI
15.4%
Homebuilding ROI is calculated as homebuilding pre‐tax income for the year divided by average homebuilding inventory. Average homebuilding inventory in the ROI calculation is the sum of ending homebuilding inventory balances for the trailing five quarters divided by five.
12
19.1%
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BALANCED APPROACH
$ in billions
13
$18
$16.1 – $16.3 $5$4
$12
$14.1
$6
$2.7 $2.2
Expect to generate positive cash flow from operations for the fourth consecutive year while growing revenues and replenishing land investments
$0
FY 2015
FY 2016
FY 2017
FY 2018e
FY 2015
FY 2016
FY 2017
FY 2018e
Consolidated Revenues
Land Investment ‐ Homebuilding
$12.2 $10.8
$3 $2 $1 $0
$3.5
~$4.0
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FY 2018 CAPITAL AND CASH FLOW PRIORITIES
• •
Balanced, disciplined, flexible and opportunistic
• •
Acquired 75% of Forestar for $558 million in October 2017
Consistent dividends to shareholders
  • Increased quarterly dividend by 25% in Q1 FY 2018
  • Approximately $190 million annually
Share repurchases to partially offset dilution
  • Repurchased 1.6 million shares during the nine months ended 6/30/18 for $75 million
  • Board authorization of $400 million through September 2019
Invest in homebuilding opportunities, including acquisitions, to increase returns and consolidate market share
Reduce or maintain debt levels and leverage• Refinanced $400 million of senior notes in Q1 FY 2018
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CONSOLIDATED PRE-TAX PROFIT MARGIN
Rev $ $18
Expect consolidated pre‐tax profit margin to improve 130 to 150 basis points in FY 2018
PTI % 15%
$16
$14
$12
$10
12.7% ‐ 12.9%
$8 $6 $4 $2 $0
$10.8
10.4%
FY 2015Consolidated pre‐tax profit margin shown as a % of consolidated revenues
FY 2017 PTI %
FY 2018e
$ in billions
15
11.1%
11.4%
$16.1 – $16.3
$12.2
FY 2016
Consol. Rev $
$14.1
10%
5%
0%
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FORESTAR GROUP (“FOR”)
• FOR, a majority‐owned subsidiary of DHI (as of 10/5/17), is a publicly‐traded land development company, with operations in 20 markets and 11 states as of June 30, 2018
• The strategic relationship between DHI and FOR will significantly grow FOR into a large, national residential land development company, selling lots to DHI and other homebuilders
  • Advances DHI strategy of increasing access to optioned land and lots to enhance efficiency and returns
  • Over the next 3 to 5 years, DHI intends to reduce its ownership position and increase FOR’s public float
  • Effective 1/30/18, FOR’s fiscal year‐end aligns with DHI’s September 30 fiscal year
  • Annual lot delivery and revenue expectations*
• Fiscal 2018: 1,200 lot deliveries and $90M of revenue• Fiscal 2019: 4,000 lot deliveries and $300M to $350M of revenue• Fiscal 2020: 10,000 lot deliveries and $700M to $800M of revenue
  • Over the next three years, expect FOR’s stabilized pre‐tax profit margin to be 10% to 12%
  • Forestar is targeting a net debt to capital ratio of 40% or less
*Expectations are for Forestar’s standalone operations
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FORESTAR GROWTH TIMELINE
Expect FOR to invest $400M in land acquisition and development and have a bank credit facility in place in FY18
Expect FOR to access the public markets for additional growth capital in FY19
FOR owns and controls 18,800 lots as of 6/30/18, with 11,100 under contract with or subject to right of first offer to DHI
Oct. 5, 2017
Sept. 30, 2018
Sept. 30, 2019
Sept. 30, 2020
DHI acquisition date of 75% of o/s shares of FOR
DHI & FOR fiscal year‐end
Feb. 2018
June 30, 2018
FOR strategic asset sale
DHI & FOR quarter‐end
Expect FOR to deliver 1,200 lots and generate $90M of revenues in fiscal 2018
Expect FOR to deliver 4,000 lots and generate $300M to $350M of revenues in FY19
Expect FOR to deliver 10,000 lots and generate $700M to $800M of revenues in FY20
DHI does not expect FOR to have a material impact on its fiscal 2018 results
Lot counts and dollar amounts are approximate
Expectations outlined are for Forestar’s standalone operations
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FY18 & FY19 EXPECTATIONS*
Q4 Fiscal 2018
• Backlog conversion rate in the range of 90% to 93%• Home sales gross margin consistent with the third quarter of fiscal 2018• Homebuilding SG&A expense around 8%• Income tax rate of approximately 26%
Fiscal 2018
• Consolidated revenues of $16.1 billion to $16.3 billion• Consolidated pre‐tax profit margin in the range of 12.7% to 12.9%• Cash flow from operations excluding Forestar of greater than $800 million
Preliminary Fiscal 2019
• Consolidated revenue increase of 10% to 15%• Consolidated pre‐tax profit margin of approximately 13%• Income tax rate of approximately 25%• Outstanding share count consistent with fiscal 2018
*Based on market conditions as noted on the Company’s Q3 FY18 conference call on 7/26/18
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FY19 & FY20 OUTLOOK*
• Increase consolidated revenues and pre‐tax profits at a double‐digit annual pace
• Maintain homebuilding pre‐tax return on inventory around 20%
• Increase optioned lots to 60% of total homebuilding land and lot position
• Increase cash flow from operations excluding Forestar to over $1.25 billion annually by 2020
• Reduce homebuilding leverage and maintain or reduce homebuilding debt
• Increase dividends
• Repurchase shares to offset dilution and keep outstanding share count flat in fiscal 2019 and 2020
*Based on market conditions as noted on the Company’s conference call on 7/26/18
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THIRD QUARTER DATA
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Q3 FY 2018 HIGHLIGHTS
• Net income attributable to D.R. Horton increased 57% to $453.8 million or $1.18 per diluted share
• Consolidated pre‐tax income increased 39% to $616.2 million
• Consolidated pre‐tax profit margin improved 210 basis points to 13.9%
• Net homes sold, homes closed and homes in backlog increased by 12%, 13% and 9%, respectively
• 14,650 net homes sold and 14,114 homes closed
• Homes in inventory increased 8% to 29,800 homes
• Lots owned and controlled up 10% YOY to 277,700; 56% optioned, up from 52% in Q2 FY18 and 50% Q3 FY17
• Repurchased 608,537 shares during the quarter for $27.0 millionComparisons to prior year quarter
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SALES, CLOSINGS AND BACKLOG
# of Homes
15,000 12,500 10,000
7,500 5,000 2,500
0
Net Sales Orders, Homes Closed and Homes in Backlog increased 12%, 13% and 9%, respectively, in Q3 FY 2018 compared to Q3 FY 2017
Sales
Closings3Q FY 2017
Backlog
3Q FY 2016
3Q FY 2018
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INCOME STATEMENT
Homes closed
14,114
12,497
37,183
32,586
45,751
Homebuilding Revenues:
Home sales
Land/lot sales and other
$
4,265.5 59.1 4,324.6
$
3,662.3 22.2 3,684.5
$
11,122.1 109.2 11,231.3
$
9,618.1 56.9 9,675.0
$
13,653.2 88.3 13,741.5
Gross profit:
Home sales
Land/lot sales and other
Inventory and land option charges
932.7 13.7 (8.9) 937.5 349.1 (1.3) 589.7 26.5 616.2 162.5 453.7 (0.1) 453.8
725.4 3.4 (5.4) 723.4 309.5 (1.3) 415.2 29.3 444.5 155.5 289.0 0.0 289.0
2,360.4 20.5 (42.8) 2,338.1 976.6 (18.0) 1,379.5 72.8 1,452.3 458.9 993.4 (0.7) 994.1
1,904.3 11.7 (19.9) 1,896.1 872.4 (7.8) 1,031.5 85.0 1,116.5 391.4 725.1 0.0 725.1
2,725.4 13.5 (40.2) 2,698.7 1,220.4 (11.0) 1,489.3 112.8 1,602.1 563.7 1,038.4 0.0 1,038.4
SG&A
Interest and other (income)
Homebuilding pre‐tax income
Financial services, Forestar and other pre‐tax income Pre‐tax income
Income tax expense
Net income
Net loss attributable to noncontrolling interests
Net income attributable to D.R. Horton, Inc.
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
$ $
Diluted earnings per share
1.18
0.76
2.59
1.92
2.74
$ in millions except per share data
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3 MONTHS ENDED
9 MONTHS ENDED
YEAR ENDED 9/30/2017
6/30/2018
6/30/2017
6/30/2018
6/30/2017
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HOME SALES GROSS MARGIN
22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10%
20.8%
21.9%
8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
In a healthy market, home sales gross margin improved 210 basis points from the prior year quarter
19.8% 20.2%
19.8%
20.0%
FY15 FY16
Q3 FY17 FY17
Q2 FY18
Q3 FY18
Shown as a % of the Company’s homebuilding segment’s home sales revenues
Includes interest amortized to cost of sales
Refer to slide 3 of the Company’s Q3 FY18 Supplementary Data presentation for detailed components of home sales gross margin
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HOMEBUILDING SG&A
SG&A as a percentage of homebuilding revenues improved 30 basis points to 8.1% in Q3 FY 2018
HB Rev $
SG&A % HB Rev $
SG&A %
$14,000 $12,000 $10,000
12% $14,00011% $12,000 $10,00010% $8,0009% $6,000 $4,0008% $2,000 7%$0
12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7%
$8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000
9.0%
8.7%
$0
$ in millions
Shown as a % of homebuilding revenues
25
Fiscal YTD 6/30
Third Fiscal Quarter
2017
HB Rev $
2018 SG&A %
Q3 FY17 HB Rev $
Q3 FY18 SG&A %
8.4%
8.1%
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CONSOLIDATED PRE-TAX INCOME
Consolidated pre‐tax profit margin improved 210 basis points to 13.9% in Q3 FY 2018
PTI $
PTI $
$1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000
12.6%
$1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$800
$600
$400
$200
13.9%
$0
$0
$ in millions
Shown as a % of consolidated revenues
26
Fiscal YTD 6/30
Third Fiscal Quarter
11.2%
$1,452.3
$1,116.5
2017 2018
Q3 FY17
Q3 FY18
11.8%
$444.5
$616.2
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BALANCE SHEET
Homebuilding
Cash and cash equivalents
6/30/2018
9/30/2017
6/30/2017
Inventories:
Construction in progress and finished homes Land inventories
5,194.8 4,715.5 9,910.3
4,606.0 4,631.1 9,237.1
4,905.6 4,648.4 9,554.0
Other assets
Deferred income taxes, net
Financial services, Forestar and other assets Total assets
879.7
793.1 365.0 807.1
729.9 383.7 837.8
Homebuilding Notes payable Other liabilities
2,447.1 1,649.4 727.0 8,597.3 172.6 8,769.9 13,593.4
2,451.6 1,508.7 476.7 7,747.1 0.5 7,747.6 12,184.6
2,453.1 1,560.2 527.1 7,436.2 0.5 7,436.7 11,977.1
Financial services, Forestar and other liabilities Stockholders’ equity
Noncontrolling interests
Total equity
Total liabilities and equity
$
$
$
Debt to total capital – homebuilding Common shares outstanding
Book value per common share
$
22.2% 376.99 22.80
$
24.0% 374.99 20.66
$
24.8% 374.22 19.87
In millions except per share metrics
Homebuilding cash and cash equivalents presented above includes $11.2 million, $9.3 million and $10.9 million of restricted cash for the periods ended 6/30/18, 9/30/17 and 6/30/17, respectively.
27
$
759.2
$
982.3
$
471.7
$ $
203.2 1,841.0 13,593.4
$ $
12,184.6
$ $
11,977.1
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HOMES IN INVENTORY
30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
29,800
5,000 0
Homes in inventory increased from a year ago to support expected growth in homes closed
19,800
23,100
9/30/15 9/30/16 6/30/17 9/30/17Models Sold Specs
6/30/18
27,600
26,200
28
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HOMEBUILDING LAND AND LOT POSITION
300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000
277,700
50,000 0
118,400
112,900 125,500
125,000
122,200
173,900
126,600
124,000
55,500
9/30/15
9/30/16 6/30/17Optioned
9/30/17
6/30/18
Optioned lot position increased 23% from a year ago 44% owned / 56% optioned at 6/30/18
204,500
155,500 *
91,600
*Includes 11,100 lots owned or controlled by FOR that DHI has under contract or the right of first offer or refusal to purchase
29
252,100
249,000
Owned
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