October 17, 2008
House races rated for interest
By MARK LANE
Daytona Beach News Journal
FOOTNOTE
The photo Web site Flickr.com developed a cool concept they call "interestingness." Its programmers worked up an algorithm that takes into account the number of times a photo is viewed, the number of comments, how often it's picked as a favorite photo, a little of this and a little of that.
I'm tempted to try this with political races. A race would gain interestingness points if it's close, if any of the candidates are widely known outside the district, and the number and scariness of television commercials. Also the odds that a partisan seat might switch parties -- let's call that "flipability" -- and the number and quality of scandals. Points would be granted for being nearby because we're interested in what's close to home.
So as a public service, here are some races on my radar ranked from most to least interesting:
1 -- District 24, Rep. Tom Feeney versus Suzanne Kosmas. Interestingness points for flipability, closeness of the race and localness. Scandal points for Feeney's connections to superlobbyist Jack Abramoff who in September was sentenced to four years in prison. In a short-lived television ad, Feeney called his Scottish golf trip with Abramoff a "rookie mistake." Of course, this rookie had been speaker of the Florida House and candidate for lieutenant governor.
Political handicappers have rated this race as a tossup and even as leaning Democratic.
Fun fact: If Kosmas wins, she would be the first U.S. representative to live in Volusia County since 1992.
2 -- District 16, Rep. Tim Mahoney versus Tom Rooney. Sex scandals! Sex scandals! Sex scandals! Oh yeah, and Tim Mahoney might become one of only two Democratic incumbents in the nation to lose his seat this year.
Remember, Mahoney was only elected two years ago because the district's previous representative, Mark Foley, was embroiled in a scandal over lurid instant messages sent to House pages. This week, ABC News reported that Mahoney, who is married, had an affair with a staffer. Things ended awkwardly, unfortunate words were exchanged (and recorded), and the staffer was fired. Later, suits were discussed and money was paid to the staffer, and, ABC reports, the FBI is investigating.
And yes, now there are media reports of a second affair.
To paraphrase Paul Simon, there must 50 ways to leave a staffer. In a district with this history, this would not be one of them.
3 -- District 8, Rep. Ric Keller versus Alan Grayson. Interestingness points for flipability, and being nearby. It had been drawn as a solid Republican district anchored in Orange County but got messed up when Democrats and independents moved into the neighborhood. Campaign tip sheets rate it a tossup.
Fun fact: The sponsor of the so-called Cheeseburger Bill, which bans obesity-related suits against fast-food restaurants, Keller didn't vote for the measure in 2005 because he was hospitalized for cardiac arrhythmia.
15 -- District 7, Rep. John Mica versus Faye Armitage. Interestingness for closeness to home and, well, nothing much else. A familiar face in his district since he first ran in 1992, Mica didn't even have an opponent in 2004 and won with 63 percent of the vote in 2006. He has a feisty and articulate but little-known Democratic opponent.
24 -- District 3, Corrine Brown versus nobody. She's already been re-elected because nobody ran against her.
mark.lane@news-jrnl.com
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