Keller locked in dogfight to return to Congress
His district has gone from solidly Republican to a Democratic majority since the lines were redrawn in 2002.
By Bill Thompson
Staff writer
Published: Wednesday, October 29, 2008 at 6:30 a.m.
Last Modified: Wednesday, October 29, 2008 at 5:59 a.m.
Depending on whom you ask, U.S. Rep. Ric Keller is poised to either eke out a victory over challenger Alan Grayson or is set to be trounced.
Keller's campaign recently released a poll showing the Republican incumbent with a 4-point lead (47-43) over his Democratic rival for Florida's 8th Congressional District, which covers eastern Marion County, including Silver Springs Shores and parts of eastern Ocala. That announcement came right after the national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reported that Keller trailed its candidate by 11 percentage points (52-41).
Each poll surveyed 400 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.
"Ric Keller's belief that he is ahead shows how out of touch he is," Grayson campaign spokeswoman Susan Clary said in a statement. "Keller voted with President Bush's colleagues 95 percent of the time, according to a new Congressional Quarterly study released this week. That means Keller voted with them to keep Wall Street speculators unregulated, and he voted with them to raise our national debt to nearly $10 trillion."
The statement continued: "We are lucky that Keller did not get his way in putting our Social Security savings into the hands of Wall Street crooks. Keller said in 2000 that it would be time for a change in 2008 - that's the one thing we can all agree on."
In response, Keller campaign spokesman Bryan Malenius noted in a statement, "The more voters have seen and heard about Alan Grayson these past few weeks, the more they've rejected his ultra-liberal message. Grayson wants to cut off funding for our troops in harm's way, block drilling offshore and in Alaska, and raise taxes on Central Florida families. Those views are simply out of step with voters in this swing district."
"Swing district" was an apt choice of words in this case.
That's because while voters can take these pronouncements, even if from reputable polling firms, at face value because they come from the campaigns, the numbers that speak volumes about how the race might end up are voter registration statistics. Keller's district, in just a few months, has gone from strongly Republican to a Democratic majority.
Republicans in the GOP-dominated Florida Legislature drew new boundaries for District 8 in 2002 after the 2000 census was completed. Though still centered in Orlando, they sought to make it safer for a Republican candidate - in this case, Keller - by including Republican strongholds in parts of Lake and Marion counties.
But Keller is now seen as vulnerable because of the shift in voter sentiments.
According to state records, in 2002 Republicans boasted roughly 21,500 more registered voters than Democrats in District 8. That margin dipped to a little more than 14,000 as of two years ago and held there even as recently as December, the registration deadline for voting in the January presidential primary.
By July, however, the GOP's lead among registered voters had shrunk to 2,100. Heading into next week's election, the Democrats now own District 8 by a margin of more than 9,200 voters.
Meanwhile, the number of independents and minor party voters has rocketed up nearly 49 percent, from 71,141 in 2002 to 105,679 today. Relative to the major parties, that group now represents 24 percent of registered voters, up from 20 percent six years ago - a trend that might hobble Keller as independent voters drift toward the Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama.
One observer who has followed the contest closely described the District 8 transformation as "quite shocking" but added the outcome might have little to do with either Keller or Grayson.
"What's shocking is the speed of how this has changed. It's pretty unusual to see a district flip from one side to another" this radically, said Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida in Orlando.
The Orlando area, where three-quarters of the registered voters in District 8 reside, offers the most dramatic evidence of how the Republicans' stranglehold has loosened. Six years ago, Republicans outnumbered Democrats there by roughly 13,200 voters; today, the Democrats hold the edge by almost 18,000 voters.
Jewett attributed that to the excitement Obama has generated and the "terrific job" Democrats have done in registering voters. It's a trend playing out statewide.
One of Keller's keys in retaining his seat, according to the statistics, might be those GOP-leaning areas in Lake and Marion counties. The Republican advantage in Lake remains virtually unchanged from 2002, while in Marion, the GOP has slipped a bit but still has control. The trouble for Keller is that the number of registered voters who do not identify with either the Republicans or Democrats is up more than 40 percent in each county.
Keller understands how key these voters are, his spokesman said.
"You really need to use your imagination to believe both Ric and Sen. [John] McCain are down double-digits in our district. It just defies logic," Malenius said. "Alan Grayson is an ultra-liberal who is totally out-of-step with voters in Central Florida, with the exception of the far left. On the other hand, Ric has a lot of appeal to independents and conservative Democrats who appreciate his efforts to block the sale of the Ocala National Forest, put more cops on the streets to fight crime and make sure every child, rich or poor, has the opportunity to go to college.
"Voters have a crystal clear difference between the two candidates and, with the exception of really liberal Democrats, we don't think Republicans, Democrats, or independents in Marion County will find a good reason to vote for Alan Grayson."
Ultimately, though, Keller and Grayson might be less relevant in their own race than Obama, McCain and President Bush, as the District 8 contest could be a local referendum on the presidential election, Jewett observed.
"Keller has a chance. Incumbents, after all, do win 90 percent of the time. But he's in the fight of his political life, and the race might be decided by how well Obama does in Central Florida and how strong his coattails might be," he said.
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