Storm evac is too slooooooooooooow

Storm evac is too slow

County's time is over 16-hour state standard

By PETER GUINTA
peter.guinta@staugustine.com
Publication Date: 08/03/08

The state standard for evacuating a coastal county is 16 hours or less if a Category 4 or 5 hurricane approaches.

Florida State University officials said last week that it would actually require 19 or 20 hours to evacuate St. Johns County, putting residents at risk.

County Commission Chairman Tom Manuel said the county has "multiple areas" that cannot meet a 16-hour standard.

"In Nocatee, they built safe rooms that can weather a Category 3 hurricane in every house," Manuel said. "That's a good idea. There's no way we can evacuate on I-95. You won't even be able to get on I-95. That's why (proposed State Road) 9B is such an important road. It starts within the county so there's no southern wave of evacuees."

S.R. 9B will, when completed, start at State Road 208 and connect to State Road 9A, leading drivers to Interstate 95 on the north side of Jacksonville.

The FSU team that wrote the evacuation report, Timothy Chapin, associate professor of urban & regional planning, Robert Deyle, professor of urban and regional planning and Earl J. Baker, associate professor of geography, had been studying land use changes in coastal communities over a 10-year period.

Deyle said that in 2006, counties that didn't define their own evacuation times were set at 16 hours.

"That was a general rule of thumb that the Division of Emergency Management used a few years ago," he said.

However, St. Johns County's Emergency Management Director Ray Ashton said the state is now compiling a new and more accurate evacuation timetable and will consider additional factors such as transportation, storm surge and behavioral information.

"The barrier islands are the first evacuation area," Ashton said. "You're always going to have a problem there because of the bridges. There are 35,000 people there, so the key is early evacuation."

The current county figures for evacuations show that they can range from nine hours for a Category 1 hurricane with light traffic on I-95 to as much as 19 to 20 hours with heavy traffic on I-95 fleeing storms to the south.

The Sheriff's Office also has a plan in place to smooth traffic flow as much as possible during hurricanes.

Ashton said, "We have 100 different scenarios to play with, so we can't wait until 10 hours from landfall. We're going to err on the safe side."

According to Jeff Alexander, manager of the Statewide Evacuation Program study now underway, said the professors are correct in saying that the county won't make the 16 hour mark.

"It's not the best news in the world, but we live in Florida and people want to live near the water," Alexander said. The key, he added, is managing growth and density in high-hazard coastal areas to maintain evacuation times roughly the same.

A new tool, he said, is a light-aided aerial mapping program that provides more accurate information about which coastal areas will flood during hurricanes.

"The maps we have now were created in 1998," Alexander said. "The physics of water doesn't change dramatically, but there's been a lot of technology developed since then."

He said one member of the state study team, Professor Earl J. Baker, is studying behavioral aspects of hurricane evacuation, seeking answers to questions such as: Will people evacuate? Where will they go if they do leave? Why would they not leave? Are they going to leave town, stay with friends or go to a public shelter?

"(That information) helps us devise plans that can meet needs," Alexander said.

Ashton said a final order to evacuate is made by many agencies and individuals, such as the Sheriff's Office, Emergency Management, County Commission, County Administrator, School Board and County Attorney.

The FSU study reported that from 1990 to 2002, development had added $80 billion in property and 958,000 new residents to coastal hurricane zones.

Manuel said people believe more roads is the answer to faster evacuation times.

"There's no way to build your way out of it," he said.


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