Monday, November 05, 2012

NY Times 538 blog rates Florida a tossup (St. Augustine WRecKord banner headline quotes its own poll, favoring Romney)


Florida

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONSDEMREPMARGIN
Polling average47.548.2Romney +0.7
Adjusted polling average47.948.1Romney +0.2
State fundamentals45.849.3Romney +3.5
Now-cast47.848.1Romney +0.3
Projected vote share ±2.849.649.9Romney +0.3
Chance of winning44%56%
POLLS538 WT.DATEDEMREPMARGIN
InsiderAdvantage11/447.052.0Romney +5.0
PPP11/450.049.0Obama +1.0
Ipsos (online)11/446.046.0Tie
Ipsos (online)11/347.047.0Tie
YouGov11/347.048.0Romney +1.0
Mellman11/247.045.0Obama +2.0
Ipsos (online)11/248.046.0Obama +2.0
Ipsos (online)11/148.046.0Obama +2.0
NBC/Marist11/149.047.0Obama +2.0
Mason-Dixon11/145.051.0Romney +6.0
Ipsos (online)10/3147.047.0Tie
We Ask America10/3048.949.8Romney +0.9
Gravis Marketing10/3047.050.0Romney +3.0
Grove10/2948.047.0Obama +1.0
Pulse Opinion Research10/2948.050.0Romney +2.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac10/2848.047.0Obama +1.0
PPP10/2849.048.0Obama +1.0
CNN/Opinion Research *10/2848.048.0Tie
Mellman10/2749.047.0Obama +2.0
SurveyUSA10/2747.047.0Tie
Rasmussen10/2548.050.0Romney +2.0
Grove10/2447.045.0Obama +2.0
Gravis Marketing10/2449.050.0Romney +1.0
Susquehanna10/2446.051.0Romney +5.0
Mellman10/2147.047.0Tie
Angus Reid10/2044.049.0Romney +5.0
Rasmussen10/1846.051.0Romney +5.0
PPP10/1847.048.0Romney +1.0
CNN/Opinion Research10/1848.049.0Romney +1.0
Grove10/1848.045.0Obama +3.0
SurveyUSA10/1847.046.0Obama +1.0
Fox News10/1845.048.0Romney +3.0
PPP10/1448.049.0Romney +1.0
Gravis Marketing10/1448.049.0Romney +1.0
American Research Group10/1146.049.0Romney +3.0
YouGov10/1148.047.0Obama +1.0
Rasmussen10/1147.051.0Romney +4.0
Mason-Dixon10/1044.051.0Romney +7.0
U. North Florida10/949.045.0Obama +4.0
NBC/Marist10/948.047.0Obama +1.0
Hill Research Consultants10/743.047.0Romney +4.0
We Ask America10/446.049.0Romney +3.0
Rasmussen10/447.049.0Romney +2.0
NBC/Marist10/147.046.0Obama +1.0
Gravis Marketing9/3049.048.4Obama +0.6
Suffolk *9/3046.043.0Obama +3.0
InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion9/2449.046.0Obama +3.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac9/2453.044.0Obama +9.0
The Washington Post9/2351.047.0Obama +4.0
PPP9/2350.046.0Obama +4.0
American Research Group9/2250.045.0Obama +5.0
Mason-Dixon9/1948.047.0Obama +1.0
Purple Strategies9/1947.048.0Romney +1.0
We Ask America *9/1849.145.5Obama +3.6
Fox News9/1849.044.0Obama +5.0
Gravis Marketing9/1647.147.7Romney +0.6
YouGov9/1449.047.0Obama +2.0
McLaughlin9/1243.847.7Romney +3.9
Rasmussen9/1248.046.0Obama +2.0
Marist9/1149.044.0Obama +5.0
Consensus Communications9/1142.042.0Tie
McLaughlin9/1047.050.0Romney +3.0
SurveyUSA9/948.044.0Obama +4.0
Gravis Marketing9/246.748.0Romney +1.3
PPP9/248.047.0Obama +1.0
CNN/Time/Opinion Research8/2650.046.0Obama +4.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac8/2149.046.0Obama +3.0
Gravis Marketing *8/2044.546.3Romney +1.8
FMW/Baydoun Consulting8/1839.954.5Romney +14.6
Rasmussen8/1543.045.0Romney +2.0
Purple Strategies8/1447.048.0Romney +1.0
The New York Times/Quinnipiac7/3051.045.0Obama +6.0
PPP7/2948.047.0Obama +1.0
SurveyUSA7/1948.043.0Obama +5.0
Purple Strategies7/1345.048.0Romney +3.0
Mason-Dixon *7/1146.045.0Obama +1.0
Rasmussen7/945.046.0Romney +1.0
We Ask America7/246.145.3Obama +0.8
Quinnipiac6/2545.041.0Obama +4.0
Quinnipiac6/1846.042.0Obama +4.0
Purple Strategies6/545.049.0Romney +4.0
PPP6/350.046.0Obama +4.0
Quinnipiac5/2141.047.0Romney +6.0
NBC/Marist5/2048.044.0Obama +4.0
Suffolk5/846.045.0Obama +1.0
Quinnipiac5/143.044.0Romney +1.0
Rasmussen4/2545.046.0Romney +1.0
Purple Strategies4/2345.047.0Romney +2.0
Fox News4/1745.043.0Obama +2.0
PPP4/1550.045.0Obama +5.0
Quinnipiac3/2649.042.0Obama +7.0
Rasmussen3/1346.043.0Obama +3.0
Rasmussen2/947.044.0Obama +3.0
NBC/Marist1/2749.041.0Obama +8.0
Mason-Dixon1/2644.048.0Romney +4.0
Suffolk1/2442.047.0Romney +5.0
Quinnipiac1/2345.045.0Tie
Quinnipiac1/843.046.0Romney +3.0
NBC/Marist12/748.041.0Obama +7.0
Quinnipiac12/542.045.0Romney +3.0
PPP12/145.044.0Obama +1.0

Iowa

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