"May you leave interesting times." Ancien Chinese curse. From Florida Phoenix:
New poll shows Casey DeSantis and Byron Donalds in statistical tie for GOP race for governor
However, Donalds soars to a 15-point among voters who voted in last primary election
First Lady Casey DeSantis ( L) and U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R) (Photos via the Governor’s Office and the U.S. House.)
A new survey of nearly 800 Florida Republican voters shows Casey DeSantis with a slight lead over Byron Donalds in the race for the GOP gubernatorial primary election taking place next year.
Donalds soars to a 15-point lead over the First Lady of Florida, though, when the poll is narrowed down to Republican voters who cast ballots in the last GOP primary election.
The University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) shows DeSantis leading Donalds, 32%-29%. Another 8% say they support former Panhandle U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, 2% support Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, and 1% back Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson.
Seven percent of Republicans polled say they would vote for someone else, while 18% say they don’t know who they would vote for.
Several polls of GOP voters released this year show the First Lady is competitive with Donalds, a third-term U.S. Rep. from Southwest Florida, even though she has not announced if she will seek the nomination. However, some of those previously released polls show that when voters are informed that Donalds has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, his lead over DeSantis grows exponentially.
“Casey DeSantis was an early favorite when we asked about this in fall of 2023 with 22%, ahead of Donalds with 9%, and 40% undecided, but after Trump’s endorsement of Donalds and as we get closer to August 2026, DeSantis’s lead has all but disappeared, now inside the margin of error for this poll,” said Dr. Michael Binder, UNF PORL faculty director and professor of political science.
And Binder says among Republicans who voted in the 2022 primary election, Donalds is actually 15 points ahead of Mrs. DeSantis, “and it’s likely those same folks will be the ones voting next August, so this race might not actually be as close as it appears.”
Casey DeSantis has refused to say whether she’ll run for governor to succeed her husband, Ron DeSantis, when he is term limited out of office.
She has faced extensive negative media coverage this year regarding Hope Florida, an initiative she spearheaded that is designed to help Floridians move off government assistance by connecting them to a clearinghouse of services offered by nonprofits and faith-based communities. The Hope Florida Foundation, the nonprofit behind the program, has been under scrutiny for months following reports that it gave $10 million from a Medicaid settlement with a giant managed care plan to two nonprofits.
The nonprofits then directed the taxpayer dollars to a political committee, chaired by the governor’s then-chief of staff, to campaign against a proposed constitutional amendment that would have legalized recreational marijuana.
While the diversion of Medicaid money to lobby against the marijuana amendment made headlines throughout the 2025 session, it isn’t resonating with the GOP base. According to the survey, 63% of GOP respondents said that they had never heard of the Hope Florida Foundation, with 23% indicating a favorable opinion, and just 6% unfavorable.
“Two thirds of Florida Republicans have not heard of the Hope Florida Foundation, closely linked to a recent major scandal for the DeSantis camp,” said Dr. Sean Freeder, UNF professor of political science in a press release accompanying survey results. “While their lack of knowledge helps Casey DeSantis now, the Donalds campaign and others are sure to campaign on the scandal and, as Republican voters learn more, she’s likely to lose some support.”
The poll also shows that Florida Republicans generally support eliminating property taxes for homeowners (63%) and oppose a potential 2026 ballot measure legalizing recreational cannabis (58% oppose, with only 40% supporting).
The survey of 797 active Florida Republicans was conducted between July 14-22 with a margin of error of +/-3.9% by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida.
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