BY MARY ELLEN KLAS
Orlando Congressman Tom Feeney, a former speaker of the Florida House and one-time running mate of former Gov. Jeb Bush, has become the poster child for the declining fortunes of the Republican Party in Florida.
In 2002, Feeney carved a Congressional district for himself from a Republican-leaning swath of Orlando. Now, after three terms in Congress and a barrage of bad publicity, the National Republican Congressional Committee this week pulled plans to advertise on Feeney's behalf -- proof of their concern that he could lose his seat to Democrats on Nov. 4.
It's the coattail effect to the max: If Barack Obama draws record numbers of Democrats to the polls, Feeney and other Republicans fear a Democratic surge could hurt their chances in races all the way down the ballot.
Also at risk are Orlando Republican Ric Keller, Miami's Diaz-Balart brothers, Lincoln and Mario, six to 10 competitive state House seats and three state Senate districts -- all once considered safe for Republicans.
''I would not want to be a Republican in a close race in South Florida right now,'' said Democratic pollster Tom Eldon, of Schroth Eldon Associates.
The reasons: voter dissatisfaction with the national economy, an electorate seeking change and a massive voter registration drive by Democrats that gives them a 657,000-vote edge over Republicans -- including 308,000 in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties alone.
''It's commendable to the Democratic Party, the kind of registration numbers they've been able to produce this year,'' said Gov. Charlie Crist this week.
But the Republican governor wouldn't speculate on what impact those numbers will have on the Republican majority in the state Legislature or Congressional delegation except to say that Floridians have a tendency ``to be very well focused on individual races.''
He noted that when he was elected two years ago, Floridians also reelected Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson by a wide margin.
''Floridians, I think, vote the person more than they do the party,'' Crist told the Associated Press.
A Miami Herald poll released Thursday found that Floridians are distinguishing between state and national politics. While Florida voters favor Barack Obama over John McCain 49-42 percent, most voters -- 52 percent -- view Crist favorably, compared to 43 percent who view his performance unfavorably.
''Charlie Crist appears to be immune from the ill-will voters have toward the Republican Party and the national scene,'' said Kellyanne Conway of The Polling Company, which also conducted the Miami Herald poll.
Because ''voters are viewing the presidential race as a singular event,'' it is likely to have little effect on state legislative races, she said. There will be more of an effect on Congressional districts, ''because McCain has been hanging out there,'' Conway said.
Eldon predicted however, that in ``some situations in some districts where, because of a massive Obama turnout, there is an effect.''
Crist, while confident that Florida is still a red state, isn't taking any chances.
The governor spent Monday barnstorming the state at get-out-the-vote rallies in three regions where Senate Republicans are in trouble:
• Melbourne, where Rep. Thad Altman is battling Democrat Kendall Moore, a Rockledge attorney;
• Sarasota, where Democrat Morgan Bentley is trying to capture the long-held Republican district from Republican Nancy Detert of Venice, and;
• West Palm Beach, where incumbent Sen. Jeff Atwater, the Republican pick for Senate president, faces newcomer Linda Bird in a district where only 39 percent of the voters are registered Republican.
The governor traveled with Atwater and Republican Rep. Ray Sansom of Destin, who will be the next House speaker. In the House, the coattail effect on the Republican's 77-43 majority will be minimal, Sansom predicts.
''We've done a lot of polling, and it does appear that voters understand they can separate [state] House races from Congress and national politics,'' he said.
U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sees it differently. ''This is a whole new day in politics, and in no place is it more obvious than Florida,'' the Democrat said in an interview Wednesday.
Pelosi and other Democrats acknowledge, however, that they could lose one Congressional seat: that of incumbent Congressman Tim Mahoney of West Palm Beach, who was leading in his Republican-leaning district until allegations surfaced that he paid settlement money to a former mistress.
In the state House, where districts were drawn in 2002 to give the advantage to Republicans, voter registration has tightened the margins in once-heavy Republican districts held by Republicans Gayle Harrell, Rob Schenck, Joe Pickens, Carl Domino and Ellyn Bogdanoff, according to a Miami Herald analysis.
The districts remain Republican but, since 2004, have increased the number of voters registered either Democratic or no party affiliation.
Only one House district, held by Democratic Rep. Luis Garcia of Miami Beach, has flipped from marginally Republican to marginally Democrat.
Still, Democrats concede they can only go so far in shifting the balance of power in the state Legislature. Sen. Al Lawson of Tallahassee, the incoming Senate Democratic leader, spent the week in South Florida raising money and steering it into the tight Senate seats, including funding ads that target Atwater for his vote on insurance.
Lawson predicts that Democratic gains in 2008 won't bring them a majority, but will bring them closer to parity by 2012 -- when legislators redraw the political maps during the once-a-decade reapportionment process.
''People are realizing that a Legislature dominated by Republicans is not good for business or the economy, but when those numbers are closer, it's better for everybody,'' Lawson said.
Miami Herald staff writers Rob Barry, Marc Caputo and Lesley Clark contributed to this report.
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