SUN-SENTINEL: Barack Obama's coattails could help Democrats solidify control of Congress

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South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com
Barack Obama's coattails could help Democrats solidify control of Congress
Congressional races in Florida may be deciding factors
By William E. Gibson

Washington Bureau Chief

October 26, 2008

WASHINGTON


Democrats have bright prospects this year to not only win the White House but strengthen their control of Congress.

The outcome may depend on three hard-fought congressional races in South Florida, two toss-ups in Central Florida and about three dozen others in play across the country.

In South Florida, Republicans have an excellent opportunity to oust scandal-tainted Tim Mahoney of Palm Beach Gardens, who may be one of few incumbent Democrats to lose a House seat this year. Democrats have high hopes of defeating Republican Reps. Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart in two suspenseful races in the Miami area.

Poll results across the country point to Democratic gains in Congress as voters turn against President Bush, look for a way out of the Iraq war and seek an economic revival.

Control of the White House and Congress under one party could transform Washington by breaking a partisan standoff on a range of issues and allowing the new president to carry out his campaign promises. It also would give the winning party the burden of power with no one to blame if the public remains dissatisfied.

Much depends on whether newly registered Democrats and independents turn out in droves to help elect presidential candidate Barack Obama and then cast votes for other Democrats. A clear Obama victory could help fellow Democrats win close House and Senate races to pad their narrow majorities.

"We could see a wave election, which would sweep in Democrats all the way down the ballot," said Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta, who tracks congressional races across the country. "If there's a surge in turnout and a big influx of new voters, which looks likely, we could see a real coattail effect that would benefit Democratic candidates for the House and Senate."

Abramowitz estimates that Democrats will gain 25 to 30 House seats and eight to 10 Senate seats.

Democrats outnumber Republicans 235 to 199 in the House, with one seat vacant. The Senate has 49 Democrats and 49 Republicans, but two independent senators side with the Democrats.

Majority control would not guarantee results. Former Democratic President Bill Clinton failed to enact health-care reforms in 1994 even when his party controlled Congress.

Nevertheless, Democratic control would pave the way for Obama's plans to expand health-care coverage, stimulate the economy and adjust tax rates. Congress and the new president, however, would have to find ways to pay for their plans while the government props up financial institutions.

"Democrats have learned from the last go-around," Abramowitz said. "It's a much more unified Democratic Party."

With the future of Congress, as well as the presidency, at stake, Democrats hope their big gains in voter registration will tip close races to their candidates and upset some long-established Republican incumbents.

In Central Florida, Republican Reps. Ric Keller of Orlando and Tom Feeney of Oviedo face well-funded opponents and a rising tide of Democratic voters. Both races are rated toss ups by The Cook Political Report, a newsletter prepared by an independent research group that rates political campaigns.

In Palm Beach County and rural areas surrounding it, Mahoney appeared headed for re-election until he was forced to acknowledge an affair with a former campaign aide and to fend off accusations that he paid her hush money. Now that race is leaning to Republican Tom Rooney.

Farther south, the Diaz-Balart brothers are struggling to overcome strong challengers.

"The fact that these races are even competitive shows that things are falling apart for Republicans," said George Gonzalez, a political scientist at the University of Miami.

"We are seeing a shift that is reminiscent of the Great Depression," he said. "The Republicans are in danger of being routed politically. And it may be that way for quite a while."

William E. Gibson can be reached at wgibson@SunSentinel.com or 202-824-8256 in Washington.



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