The Republican Exodus From Congress
Eight Republican House members have announced their retirement this year, with more predicted to follow. What’s going on?
On Wednesday afternoon, Representative Mike Conaway, Republican of Texas, announced that he would not run for re-election next year. At a news conference in Midland, Mr. Conaway expressed distress at the partisan dysfunction in Congress, nodded to the term limits that his party places on committee leadership positions and said he’d been pondering retirement for a year or so. He said he wanted to leave on his “own terms.”
After eight terms in the House, the 71-year-old Mr. Conaway is entitled to a new adventure. But as the fifth congressionalRepublican to issue a retirement announcement in the past two weeks — and the eighth this year — his decision is being received as more than a personal choice. It’s being seen as evidence that Republican lawmakers are not feeling upbeat about retaking control of the House in 2020. Some party strategists have said they expect the trend to accelerate, with another round of announcements after members return from the August recess.
While it’s too soon for House Republicans to panic, some anxiety does seem to be in order.
Besides Mr. Conaway, Utah’s Rob Bishop confirmed his retirement on Monday, and Alabama’s Martha Roby announced hers on Friday, one day after the announcement by Pete Olson of Texas, which came one day after the announcement by Paul Mitchell of Michigan. Indiana’s Susan Brooks announced her retirement in June. Georgia’s Rob Woodall did the same in February. And in January, just two weeks after being sworn in, Pennsylvania’s Tom Marino resigned. (He was replaced in a special election in May by another Republican.)
Adding to the churn, Alabama’s Bradley Byrne and Montana’s Greg Gianforte are running for other offices, while Texas’ John Ratcliffe has been nominated as the next director of national intelligence. Wyoming’s Liz Cheney is mulling a bid to replace retiring Senator Mike Enzi. And let’s not forget Justin Amash of Michigan, who switched from Republican to Independent in disgust on July 4.
By contrast, only two Democrats — New York’s José Serrano and Iowa’s Dave Loebsack — have thus far announced their retirement. (New Mexico’s Ben Ray Luján is running for Senate.)
There are as many reasons to flee Congress as there are members of Congress — more, actually. That said, lawmakers often start eyeing the exits with special longing when stuck in the minority with little hope of escape. Unlike in the Senate, where every lawmaker has some ability to influence — or at least disrupt — operations, life in the House minority tends to be a soul-crushing experience. The out-of-power party has vanishingly little opportunity to shape the agenda, or even to have a voice in the debate, leaving most members with all the influence and glamour of a grade-school hall monitor.
Add to this the strain of endlessly being asked to defend the rantings of a volatile president who prides himself on being offensive. While some Republican lawmakers seem to thrive in the role of Trump apologist, others find it “exhausting and often embarrassing,” as one confided to The Hill this week. “Serving in the Trump era has few rewards,” said the member.
In terms of electoral impact, not all retirements are created equal. Ms. Roby and Mr. Conaway hail from blood-red districts that the party is expected to hold. But Ms. Brooks’s district is more competitive, and Mr. Woodall’s and Mr. Olson’s are considered tossups.
Some of the departures are problematic for the party’s overall brand. Ms. Brooks and Ms. Roby are two of only 13 women in a Republican conference with 197 members. (Eighty-nine of the House’s 235 Democrats are women.) Ms. Brooks is in charge of recruitment for the National Republican Congressional Committee, with a special interest in diversification. For a party desperate to improve its image among women voters, her exit is not a promising development.
Then there’s the lemming effect. For each member who decides to pack up his toys and go home, it becomes that much more imaginable for other wavering members to follow. This risks fueling a narrative of a party in meltdown.
Not that all of the signs are bad for Republicans. Several lawmakers who lost in the midterms are running again, or at least considering it, including California’s David Valadao and Georgia’s Karen Handel. This “indicates that some former members may see 2020 as a better environment than 2018,” observed Kyle Kondik, an expert with the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Still, the 2020 fight promises to be bloody. Republican leaders may want to be extra nice to their team. Who knows how many other members might decide to leave on their own terms?
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