It's raining. It's pouring. And the 2024 equivalent of the "Know Nothing" Political Party -- those mean old white men who run the Florida government have deleted climate change concerns from Florida state law. Pitiful. From The Washington Post:
Parts of Florida could see more than a foot of rain, serious flooding this week
Southwestern parts of the Sunshine State near Fort Myers may exceed 15 inches.
The National Weather Service has put central and southern parts of the Florida Peninsula at a Level 2 out of 4 for slight risk of flash flooding and excessive rainfall from Tuesday through Friday. Flood watches may be issued Tuesday ahead of the heavy rainfall.
Much of the area that is expected to receive torrential rains has been facing severe drought as of late, with parched lawns and an increased fire danger. The rainfall will reduce or eliminate a large chunk of that by Saturday.
The same system may then focus a strip of intense rainfall toward the Florida Peninsula or southern Alabama around Mobile by the weekend or early next week, but confidence in that outcome remains quite low.
When will these rains hit?
Some isolated late-day thunderstorms are possible in central and southern Florida on Monday, with more scattered or widely scattered storms hitting Tuesday afternoon, especially along the Gulf Coast. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the heaviest will work ashore, with intermittent downpours through Friday. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are probable in the heaviest downpours.
Downpours may ease a bit Friday into Saturday and perhaps taper down in South Florida, but the axis of heaviest moisture might work north into the Big Bend of Florida or the Panhandle thereafter.
Rain totals and potential flooding
Widespread totals of 10 to 14 inches are expected across South Florida through Friday, primarily from Punta Gorda and Fort Myers to Lake Okeechobee to Palm Beach. Weather models depict roughly a foot of rain falling in Miami and Fort Lauderdale, which will probably result in some urban flooding.
A general 5 to 10 inches is anticipated for Tampa, the Space Coast — including Cape Canaveral — and Orlando. Into north Florida, amounts taper down rather quickly, with 3 to 5 inches a better bet.
Drought-busting rains
Flooding aside, rainfall is exactly what Florida needs. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, most of South Florida is facing a moderate or severe drought.
Stagnant high pressure and hot, sinking air during the month of May brought increased sunshine and diminished rainfall. The hot weather also evaporated more moisture from the soil, leading to building drought. This May was the hottest on record in the state of Florida
At first glance, it may not look like Florida is facing a drought. Miami is just 2.5 inches below average for the year to date, so it is, for all intents and purposes, about where it should be. Naples is above average too. But Fort Myers is more than 7 inches behind.
But much of that rain fell at the beginning of the year. It’s been comparatively dry during the last month. Fort Myers is just under 3 inches behind for the past month, and Naples is about 3.5 inches behind.
This looks to be the first big rain event of the summertime wet season, but it could be a little more than many have bargained for.
The setup for these conditions
Florida will find itself in a classic “squeeze play” pattern, which means the state will sit between two weather systems that will feed a rich tongue of moisture northeastward.
An area of high pressure is spinning clockwise over the western Atlantic Ocean. A “shortwave” of low pressure that’s spinning counterclockwise will approach from the southern Plains on Tuesday and then stall over Texas, Louisiana and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
The two oppositely spinning systems will behave as interlocking gears in a way, entraining rich tropical moisture from the Caribbean Sea and near Cuba and transporting it north-northeast. For days, Florida will be in the crosshairs of this moisture, which will feed showers and thunderstorms. Those downpours will be forming along a stationary front, or stagnant frontal boundary, which will remain draped across the state. That means they’ll move repeatedly over the same areas, leading to higher-end totals.
No comments:
Post a Comment