Recall that Trump, months ago, impetuously insisted that North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, allow him to hold his convention in Charlotte without restrictions, even without a detailed plan to comply with covid-19 prevention requirements from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. When Cooper refused to provide assurance that such an irresponsible plan could proceed, Trump abandoned North Carolina in a huff. Throwing away the millions raised for the Charlotte event, he declared he would go to Jacksonville, Fla., which soon thereafter defied Trump’s insistence that the pandemic would just “disappear.” Instead, Florida became a virus hot spot. Trump still pushed for the event to go forward, despite the health situation and Floridians’ strong opposition to having the event. Finally, on Thursday, the pretense ended. Trump canceled the event and will now just have a speech instead of a convention.
Contrast this to the competent and reasoned approach of the Democrats. They first postponed their Milwaukee convention to buy more time. They then set to planning a virtual event that would play over multiple days featuring films and speeches about their nominee-to-be, former vice president Joe Biden. As things would turn out, Democrats now are likely to have a more complete, impressive and organized convention. Why? They did not deny reality. They did not threaten the state of Wisconsin. They planned. They involved experts. They problem-solved.
Will the donors get their money back from the Republican National Committee? Will Floridians and North Carolinians resent Trump’s bullying and the inconvenience of trying to accommodate him? Did delegates refuse to come? As with so many things associated with Trump, the story of wasted money and mismanagement will come out over time. After watching Trump mangle the government response to covid-19 and the debacle in Tulsa, we are not surprised in the least that the convention collapsed. If Republicans are alert, they will notice the entire Trump reelection effort is in no better shape.
On Thursday, polling from Quinnipiac University and from St. Pete Polls showed Trump losing by 13 and six points, respectively, in Florida. A Fox News poll shows him trailing Biden in Michigan (49 percent to 40 percent), in Minnesota (51 to 38) and in Pennsylvania (50 to 39). It is significant that the challenger has at least 50 percent in two of three states, and just a notch below that in the other. There are not enough undecideds left for Trump to pick up to secure victories in those states; he’ll need to win voters back. (Remember that, in 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania and Michigan and barely lost Minnesota.)
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Should Trump lose Florida, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania (plus the traditional blue states), he will get crushed in the electoral college. One wonders, with Trump’s decision to bag the convention, whether Republicans aren’t beginning to think they can shut down the Trump show before election disaster strikes.
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Senate Republicans have every reason to panic. Once a sure bet to hold on to their majority, they now, according to the Cook Political Report, are a good bet to lose Senate control instead. “Ultimately, every day that Trump stubbornly refuses to change course is another day that it becomes increasingly likely he may not only tank his own re-election bid but . . . . take the Republican-held Senate down with him. At this point, a net gain of five to seven seats for Democrats looks far more probable than the one to three seat gain that would leave them shy of a majority.” The array of states in jeopardy for Republicans is quite striking. “Arizona is falling down the list for the GOP to defend, and Colorado is threatening to. If the election were today, Arizona, Colorado and North Carolina stand as the most vulnerable, closely followed by Maine,” Cook’s analysis finds. “That leaves what Republicans see as the tipping point states of Montana, Iowa and Georgia. But they have other states they have to watch and worry about, including Kansas, Texas, and even Alaska and South Carolina.”
Trump’s disorganized mind, penchant for denial and willful ignorance have placed the country in grave danger. The same traits have ruined his convention and threaten to provide Democrats with a rout in both the presidential and Senate races. Well, it is not as though Republicans were not warned about attaching themselves to an unhinged narcissist with a trail of failed business operations.
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