The American Association for the Advancement of Science's (AAAS's)SCIENCE Magazine again establishes: ExxonMobil knew about global warming.
These Benedict Arnold corporations must be exposed.
Their control over public policy must be reined in.
But our bumptious Boy Governor, RONALD DION DeSANTIS, a Dull Republican corporate lackey, explicitly rejects the American way of investing our government funds with an eye to corporate responsibility. DeSANTIS is dangerous. His ideological perversions are a threat to the future of our frail planet. This oleaginous bully's querulous quest to run for President must be rejected.
Footnote: Exxon's Chief Economist spoke to our International Business and Oil class at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service in 1981. For some 20 minutes, I cross-examined Exxon's Chief Economist about the history, nature, structure and performance of the Seven Sisters and the international oil oligopoly. Later I learned that the Exxon Chief Economist tried to answer my focused questions, belatedly, at a two hour dinner with students in the International Business Diplomacy program.
From SCIENCE Magazine:
Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projectionsIN SECTION REVIEW SUMMARY | CLIMATE PROJECTION
BACKGROUND: In 2015, investigative journalists discovered internal company memos indicating that Exxon oil company has known since the late 1970s that its fossil fuel products could lead to global warming with “dramatic environmental effects before the year 2050.” Additional documents then emerged showing that the US oil and gas industry’s largest trade association had likewise known since at least the 1950s, as had the coal industry since at least the 1960s, and electric utilities, Total oil company, and GM and Ford motor companies since at least the 1970s. Scholars and journalists have analyzed the texts contained in these documents, providing qualitative accounts of fossil fuel interests’ knowledge of climate science and its implications. In 2017, for instance, we demonstrated that Exxon’s internal documents, as well as peer-reviewed studies published by Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp scientists, overwhelmingly acknowledged that climate change is real and human-caused. By contrast, the majority of Mobil and ExxonMobil Corp’s public communications promoted doubt on the matter.
ADVANCES: Many of the uncovered fossil fuel industry documents include explicit projections of the amount of warming expected to occur over time in response to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Yet, these numerical and graphical data have received little attention. Indeed, no one has systematically reviewed climate modeling projections by any fossil fuel interest. What exactly did oil and gas companies know, and how accurate did their knowledge prove to be? Here, we address these questions by reporting and analyzing all known global warming projections documented by—and in many cases modeled by—Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp scientists between 1977 and 2003.
Our results show that in private and academic circles since the late 1970s and early 1980s, ExxonMobil predicted global warming correctly and skillfully. Using established statistical techniques, we find that 63 to 83% of the climate projections reported by ExxonMobil scientists were accurate in predicting subsequent global warming. ExxonMobil’s average projected warming was 0.20° ± 0.04°C per decade, which is, within uncertainty, the same as that of independent academic and government projections published between 1970 and 2007. The average “skill score” and level of uncertainty of ExxonMobil’s climate models (67 to 75% and ±21%, respectively) were also similar to those of the independent models.
Moreover, we show that ExxonMobil scientists correctly dismissed the possibility of a coming ice age in favor of a “carbon dioxide induced ‘super-interglacial’” accurately predicted that human-caused global warming would first be detectable in the year 2000 ± 5; and reasonably estimated how much CO2 would lead to dangerous warming.
OUTLOOK: Today, dozens of cities, counties, and states are suing oil and gas companies for their “longstanding internal scientific knowledge of the causes and consequences of climate change and public deception campaigns.” The European Parliament and the US Congress have held hearings, US President Joe Biden has committed to holding fossil fuel companies accountable, and a grassroots social movement has arisen under the moniker #ExxonKnew. Our findings demonstrate that ExxonMobil didn’t just know “something” about global warming decades ago—they knew as much as academic and government scientists knew. But whereas those scientists worked to communicate what they knew, ExxonMobil worked to deny it—including overemphasizing uncertainties, denigrating climate models, mythologizing global cooling, feigning ignorance about the discernibility of human-caused warming, and staying silent about the possibility of stranded fossil fuel assets in a carbon-constrained world.
The list of author affiliations is available in the full article online.
∗Corresponding author. Email: gjsupran@fas.harvard.edu Cite this article as G. Supran et al., Science 379, eabk0063 (2023). DOI: 10.1126/science.abk0063
READ THE FULL ARTICLE AT https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abk0063
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