St. Augustine Beach development surprises some residents
Posted: March 31, 2016 - 9:45am
Police Chief Hire: Charter, Civil Service Rules Required Internal Hiring Decision
I was not planning to write about the hiring of Commander Barry Fox as St. Augustine's new police chief, effective November 2016.
However, upon reading some rather misguided criticism, here, I decided to opine.
The City Charter and ordinance governing hiring of the Police Chief and Fire Chief require hiring from within. The Charter provision was adopted by vote of some 77% of St. Augustine residents during the 1980s. The City Code of Ordinances states:
Sec. 2-54. - Filling of vacancies; chief of police or fire chief.
At the time of any vacancy for the position of chief of police or fire chief of the city, the civil service board or its examiner, subject to its approval, shall provide examinations and maintain a list of eligibles to appointment of chief of either the police or fire department and shall certify such list to the city manager and such vacancy shall be filled only from such list of eligibles. In the event that the city manager shall determine that no one on the list of eligibles shall be qualified to serve as chief of the fire or police department, then such civil service board shall prepare an additional list of eligibles for certification to the city manager from which such appointment shall be made.
Thus, the statement on Historic City News that no external or minority candidates were considered is misguided. One female candidate was considered, Commander Tania Michele Perry. She was not chosen.
If we want to amend the Charter or ordinances, we can talk about it. I personally favor outside searches, and have made that clear for years.
But to have rejected five qualified applicants and advertised externally would have violated the vested due process rights of five St. Augustine police officers under the Charter and ordinance 2-54, and would have risked a federal court civil rights lawsuit that the City might have lost, just as it did in the firing of a police chief in the 1980s.
St. Augustine City Manager John Patrick Regan, P.E. made the correct choice in hiring Barry Fox as Police Chief. Commander Fox has shown moral reasoning and growth in the job, as I understand from people who have seen his compassion in dealing with homeless people.
On the other hand, Commander Michelle Perry has a reputation for abusiveness and abrasiveness, which I can externally corroborate as an eyewitness in her treatment of septagenarians and octogenarians protesting the Iraq War downtown. Acting like a stereotypical Hollywood movie Southern hick hack badass cop, Michele Perry yelled at ladies and gentlemen who had protest signs with metal supports sticking into the dirt -- our dirt -- at the Bridge of Lions, threatening us with arrest. Arrest. Think about it. In our town. In our time. Some twenty feet away was a similar sign, pointing the way to an ice cream shop. She did not touch that sign. Her manner was nasty, brutish and bullying. She acted like a fool with a gun and a badge, a bully bullying citizens simply because we were anti-war. I was ashamed for our City.
In short, Michelle Perry is mean, mean, mean and might have subjected the City to civil rights liability with excessive force and bad decisions. Morale would also have been a problem. Michele Perry is not police chief material. Picking Michelle Perry would have been a huge mistake. She is the daughter of the late corrupt County Sheriff NEIL PERRY and the developers' corrupt ISSUES GROUP political action committee maven SYD PERRY, who vetted pro-developer candidates for St. Johns County Commission.
Picking Tania Michele Perry was widely predicted by St. Augustine cognizenti ten years ago, when WILLIAM BARRY HARRISS was City Manager, and ran St. Augustine as Republican Lord of All He Surveyed, dumping a landfill in a lake and favoring developers.
Not picking Perry -- and picking Barry Fox -- is a sign of wise leadership.
Some people resigned to a Perry regime were both surprised, and thrilled.
Three cheers for City Manager John Regan for choosing Barry Fox as our next Police Chief.
However, upon reading some rather misguided criticism, here, I decided to opine.
The City Charter and ordinance governing hiring of the Police Chief and Fire Chief require hiring from within. The Charter provision was adopted by vote of some 77% of St. Augustine residents during the 1980s. The City Code of Ordinances states:
Sec. 2-54. - Filling of vacancies; chief of police or fire chief.
At the time of any vacancy for the position of chief of police or fire chief of the city, the civil service board or its examiner, subject to its approval, shall provide examinations and maintain a list of eligibles to appointment of chief of either the police or fire department and shall certify such list to the city manager and such vacancy shall be filled only from such list of eligibles. In the event that the city manager shall determine that no one on the list of eligibles shall be qualified to serve as chief of the fire or police department, then such civil service board shall prepare an additional list of eligibles for certification to the city manager from which such appointment shall be made.
Thus, the statement on Historic City News that no external or minority candidates were considered is misguided. One female candidate was considered, Commander Tania Michele Perry. She was not chosen.
If we want to amend the Charter or ordinances, we can talk about it. I personally favor outside searches, and have made that clear for years.
But to have rejected five qualified applicants and advertised externally would have violated the vested due process rights of five St. Augustine police officers under the Charter and ordinance 2-54, and would have risked a federal court civil rights lawsuit that the City might have lost, just as it did in the firing of a police chief in the 1980s.
St. Augustine City Manager John Patrick Regan, P.E. made the correct choice in hiring Barry Fox as Police Chief. Commander Fox has shown moral reasoning and growth in the job, as I understand from people who have seen his compassion in dealing with homeless people.
On the other hand, Commander Michelle Perry has a reputation for abusiveness and abrasiveness, which I can externally corroborate as an eyewitness in her treatment of septagenarians and octogenarians protesting the Iraq War downtown. Acting like a stereotypical Hollywood movie Southern hick hack badass cop, Michele Perry yelled at ladies and gentlemen who had protest signs with metal supports sticking into the dirt -- our dirt -- at the Bridge of Lions, threatening us with arrest. Arrest. Think about it. In our town. In our time. Some twenty feet away was a similar sign, pointing the way to an ice cream shop. She did not touch that sign. Her manner was nasty, brutish and bullying. She acted like a fool with a gun and a badge, a bully bullying citizens simply because we were anti-war. I was ashamed for our City.
In short, Michelle Perry is mean, mean, mean and might have subjected the City to civil rights liability with excessive force and bad decisions. Morale would also have been a problem. Michele Perry is not police chief material. Picking Michelle Perry would have been a huge mistake. She is the daughter of the late corrupt County Sheriff NEIL PERRY and the developers' corrupt ISSUES GROUP political action committee maven SYD PERRY, who vetted pro-developer candidates for St. Johns County Commission.
Picking Tania Michele Perry was widely predicted by St. Augustine cognizenti ten years ago, when WILLIAM BARRY HARRISS was City Manager, and ran St. Augustine as Republican Lord of All He Surveyed, dumping a landfill in a lake and favoring developers.
Not picking Perry -- and picking Barry Fox -- is a sign of wise leadership.
Some people resigned to a Perry regime were both surprised, and thrilled.
Three cheers for City Manager John Regan for choosing Barry Fox as our next Police Chief.
Wednesday, March 30, 2016
SAB Mayor O'BRIEN Appeals 4-2 PZB Denial of Two Illegal McMansions on F Street
On Monday, April 4, 2016 at 7 PM, St. Augustine Beach Mayor RICHARD O'BRIEN et ux are planning to ask Commissioners to reverse a 4-2 vote of the St. Augustine Beach Planning and Zoning Board March 22, 2016 to DENY their demand to build two illegal McMansions on F Street, likely to be tourist rentals. O'BRIEN has not yet declared whether he is running for re-election. It's time for Commissioners to say NO to too-big, too-tall developers, starting with the Mayor himself.
This will be the first meeting where new City Attorney James Patrick Wilson will be giving legal advice to Commissioners.
The St. Augustine Beach Planning and Zoning Board (PZB) March 22nd rejected by vote of 4-2 a thinly-documented proposal by Mayor RICHArD BURTT O'BRIEN, et ux. to build two oversize houses on F Street on commercial-zoned property.
The mass, scale and lack of plans led to the rejection after nearly two hours' discussion.
The St. Augustine Record, while running an article quoting O'BRIEN on SAB's "growing pains," has not covered this story.
Once upon a time, lugubrious gooberish good-ole-boys and their bad projects were rotely and routinely rubber-stamped by hick hack local officials in this corrupt County, now the gimlet eye of board volunteers routinely rejects lame-brained projects.
In this instance a bad project pushed by Mayor RICH O'BRIEN was rejected.
A red-faced O'BRIEN was called out by PZB member Karen Zander, who pointed out the legal inconsistencies of seeking a use by exception instead of a zoning change. Citizens Craig Thomson and Ed Slavin (that would be me) opposed the special kid gloves treatment sought by Mayor O'BRIEN. O'BRIEN's wife, LAUREN CHRISTINE RINGHAVER, called out imprecations from the audience (she was ignored, but O'BRIEN was given extra time with the clock stopped, standing challengingly at the podium while making dopey arguments lacking in legal merit.
O'BRIEN is a hotelier whose administrative appeal is now to the same City Commission that elected him as Mayor -- reckon the large cribs are destined for vacation rentals if he wins?
(Ms. RINGHAVER was the person who once pushed her husband, Mayor O"BRIEN, to complain about the lack of lighting in Anastasia State Park on the way into the north end of St. Augustine Beach at the end of SR 312. The expense and threat to wildlife led to that idea being rejected.)
Speak out and oppose this special privilege sought by the Mayor of St. Augustine Beach, RICHARD BURRT O'BRIEN, from his four colleagues, after a 4-2 vote DENYING his application by the PZB.
This will be the first meeting where new City Attorney James Patrick Wilson will be giving legal advice to Commissioners.
The St. Augustine Beach Planning and Zoning Board (PZB) March 22nd rejected by vote of 4-2 a thinly-documented proposal by Mayor RICHArD BURTT O'BRIEN, et ux. to build two oversize houses on F Street on commercial-zoned property.
The mass, scale and lack of plans led to the rejection after nearly two hours' discussion.
The St. Augustine Record, while running an article quoting O'BRIEN on SAB's "growing pains," has not covered this story.
Once upon a time, lugubrious gooberish good-ole-boys and their bad projects were rotely and routinely rubber-stamped by hick hack local officials in this corrupt County, now the gimlet eye of board volunteers routinely rejects lame-brained projects.
In this instance a bad project pushed by Mayor RICH O'BRIEN was rejected.
A red-faced O'BRIEN was called out by PZB member Karen Zander, who pointed out the legal inconsistencies of seeking a use by exception instead of a zoning change. Citizens Craig Thomson and Ed Slavin (that would be me) opposed the special kid gloves treatment sought by Mayor O'BRIEN. O'BRIEN's wife, LAUREN CHRISTINE RINGHAVER, called out imprecations from the audience (she was ignored, but O'BRIEN was given extra time with the clock stopped, standing challengingly at the podium while making dopey arguments lacking in legal merit.
O'BRIEN is a hotelier whose administrative appeal is now to the same City Commission that elected him as Mayor -- reckon the large cribs are destined for vacation rentals if he wins?
(Ms. RINGHAVER was the person who once pushed her husband, Mayor O"BRIEN, to complain about the lack of lighting in Anastasia State Park on the way into the north end of St. Augustine Beach at the end of SR 312. The expense and threat to wildlife led to that idea being rejected.)
Speak out and oppose this special privilege sought by the Mayor of St. Augustine Beach, RICHARD BURRT O'BRIEN, from his four colleagues, after a 4-2 vote DENYING his application by the PZB.
Antarctic loss could double expected sea level rise by 2100: NATURE/The Washington Post
Antarctic loss could double expected sea level rise by 2100, scientists say
By Brady Dennis and Chris Mooney March 30 at 1:00 PM

Landsat 8 natural-color mosaic of the ice cliff at the terminus of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica on 9 January 2016. Data available from the U.S. Geological Survey.
Credit: Knut Christianson
Sea levels could rise nearly twice as much as previously predicted by the end of this century if carbon dioxide emissions continue unabated, an outcome that could devastate coastal communities around the globe, according to new research published Wednesday.
The startling findings, published in the journal Nature,, paint a far grimmer picture than current consensus predictions, which have suggested that seas could rise by just under a meter at most by the year 2100. Those estimates relied on the notion that expanding ocean waters and the melting of relatively small glaciers would fuel the majority of sea level rise, but did not factor in changes to the massive ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica.
The scientists behind Wednesday’s study used sophisticated computer models to decipher a longstanding riddle about Antarctica: how did it surrender so much ice during previous warm periods? They found that similar conditions in the future could lead to monumental and irreversible increases in sea levels. If high levels of greenhouse gas emissions continue, they concluded, oceans could rise by close to two meters in total (more than six feet) by the end of the century. The melting of ice on Antarctica alone could cause seas to rise more than 13 meters (42 feet) by 2500.
The projection “nearly doubles” prior estimates of sea level rise, which had relied on a “minimal contribution from Antarctica,” said Rob DeConto of University of Massachusetts, Amherst, who authored the study with David Pollard of Penn State University.
According to a new study, high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could cause oceans to rise by close to two meters in total (over six feet) by the end of the century, and more than 13 meters (42 feet) from Antarctica alone by 2500. (Nature, Rob DeConto, David Pollard)
The research already has created a buzz in the community of scientists studying Antarctica, and experts largely praised the new model as thorough and impressive, while noting its remaining uncertainties.
“People should not look at this as a futuristic scenario of things that may or may not happen. They should look at it as the tragic story we are following right now,” said Eric Rignot, an expert on Antarctica’s ice sheet and an earth sciences professor at the University of California, Irvine, who was not involved in Wednesday’s study. “We are not there yet … [But] with the current rate of emissions, we are heading that way.”
Should the new research prove correct, it could trigger a “tectonic shift” in expectations for the speed and severity of the sea level problem, said Ben Strauss, director of the program on sea level rise at Climate Central, an independent organization of scientists based in New Jersey. He said that while the study’s findings represent potentially grave problems for many coastal areas in the decades ahead, the century beginning in 2100 could see truly catastrophic shifts, unless societies make sharp cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.
“Under the high emissions scenario, the 22nd century would be the century of hell,” Strauss said. “There would really be an unthinkable level of sea rise. It would erase many major cities and some nations from the map … That century would become the century of exodus from the coast.”
Places as far flung as South Florida, Bangladesh, Shanghai, Hampton Roads in Virginia and Washington, D.C., could be engulfed by rising waters, Strauss said. Even by 2100, Miami Beach and the Florida Keys could begin to vanish. New Orleans essentially could become an island guarded by levies. Floods that pushed as far inland as the surge from Hurricane Sandy could ravage parts of the East Coast with far greater frequency.
The researchers behind Wednesday’s study make clear that their model has limitations and that human behavior can alter the possible outcomes. For instance, the worst-case scenario — of seas rising nearly 4 feet due to Antarctic ice loss alone by 2100 — assumes that very high emissions continue for carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
In Paris late last year, world leaders forged an historic agreement to begin scaling back such emissions in coming years. They embraced the goal of holding global warming “well below” 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but at the same time, it has been widely noted that current country-level commitments to cut emissions fall far short of this target.
But even under a more moderate emissions scenario, Wednesday’s study found that the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise still could reach about two feet by 2100, and much more by 2500. Only if countries sharply reduce emissions does the model show that it’s possible to preserve Antarctica in roughly its current state.
“This research highlights the importance of doing even much better than the Paris agreement if we’re going to save our coastal cities,” Strauss said.
DeConto and Pollard arrived at their projections about future sea level rise by first turning to the past. Their study is based on an improved understanding of two past warm eras in Earth’s history that featured much higher seas, known as the Pliocene and the Eemian. The Pliocene was a warm period about 3 million years ago, when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are believed to have been about what they are now — 400 parts per million. Sea levels are believed to have been significantly higher than now — perhaps 30 feet or more. The Eemian period, between 130,000 and 115,000 years ago, also featured sea levels 6 to 9 meters above current levels, with global temperatures not much warmer than our current era.
Sea level rise on the scale seen in those eras likely required a loss of ice not just from Greenland, but also from Antarctica. But previous computer models of Antarctica have failed to accurately reproduce such scenarios. Scientists had spent “years of struggling to be able to simulate tens of meters of sea level rise in the Pliocene,” DeConto said. “This has been a longstanding problem for us. And we had known for years that we’re probably missing some important underlying physics.”
Scientists already knew that key parts of Antarctica, and especially West Antarctica, feature a condition called “marine ice sheet instability.” That is, vast glaciers are already rooted below sea level and lie on downward sloping seabeds. Warm water can not only melt them from below, but as the glaciers retreat, more and more ice will be exposed to melting.
The new study factors in not only this process, but two new ice processes that have scientists already have seen destabilize several glaciers in Greenland: “hydrofracture,” in which water formed by the melting of snow and ice atop a glacier’s stabilizing ice shelf causes it to break up; and “cliff collapse,” in which a sheer ice cliff 100 meters or more above sea level becomes unstable and crashes repeatedly into the ocean below. Both phenomena can speed up the pace of ice loss from glaciers and cause sea level rise.
“Build a little sand castle and it is fine; too high and it may break,”said Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University who has published previously with DeConto and Pollard, describing the revelations regarding ice cliff collapse.
Knut Christianson, a glaciologist at the University of Washington in Seattle, said the new work will spur additional research to determine precisely what happens at glaciers where cliff collapses and so-called “calving” occur. “It’s a more comprehensive analysis than before, and it certainly indicates that we should look more closely to see whether or not the way they treat these processes in the model is accurate in the real world,” he said.
The research further undermines a string of sea level projections from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which have been faulted for being too conservative.
In 2013, the body projected that for the same high-end emissions scenario used in the current study, sea level rise by the year 2100 would be between 0.52 and 0.98 meters (1.7 and 3.22 feet), relatively little of which would come from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. It noted that beyond this likely range, only Antarctica’s marine-based regions could conceivably contribute a lot more, but the panel found that “there is medium confidence that this additional contribution would not exceed several tenths of a meter.”
The new study challenges that reasoning. It also emerges as mounting research has pointed at one region of Antarctica in particular — the Amundsen Sea sector of remote West Antarctica, centered on the enormous, marine-based Thwaites glacier — as particularly vulnerable.
If the projections in Wednesday’s study prove correct, they could present especially bad news for U.S. coasts. The reason is gravity: Antarctica’s enormous mass pulls the ocean toward it, and when it loses significant mass, seas would surge back toward the opposite end of the world.
“Sea level rise is not going to be felt evenly over the surface of the Earth. It’s really bad for New York, Boston. We are sort of in the bullseye,” DeConto said.
By Brady Dennis and Chris Mooney March 30 at 1:00 PM

Landsat 8 natural-color mosaic of the ice cliff at the terminus of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica on 9 January 2016. Data available from the U.S. Geological Survey.
Credit: Knut Christianson
Sea levels could rise nearly twice as much as previously predicted by the end of this century if carbon dioxide emissions continue unabated, an outcome that could devastate coastal communities around the globe, according to new research published Wednesday.
The startling findings, published in the journal Nature,, paint a far grimmer picture than current consensus predictions, which have suggested that seas could rise by just under a meter at most by the year 2100. Those estimates relied on the notion that expanding ocean waters and the melting of relatively small glaciers would fuel the majority of sea level rise, but did not factor in changes to the massive ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica.
The scientists behind Wednesday’s study used sophisticated computer models to decipher a longstanding riddle about Antarctica: how did it surrender so much ice during previous warm periods? They found that similar conditions in the future could lead to monumental and irreversible increases in sea levels. If high levels of greenhouse gas emissions continue, they concluded, oceans could rise by close to two meters in total (more than six feet) by the end of the century. The melting of ice on Antarctica alone could cause seas to rise more than 13 meters (42 feet) by 2500.
The projection “nearly doubles” prior estimates of sea level rise, which had relied on a “minimal contribution from Antarctica,” said Rob DeConto of University of Massachusetts, Amherst, who authored the study with David Pollard of Penn State University.
According to a new study, high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could cause oceans to rise by close to two meters in total (over six feet) by the end of the century, and more than 13 meters (42 feet) from Antarctica alone by 2500. (Nature, Rob DeConto, David Pollard)
The research already has created a buzz in the community of scientists studying Antarctica, and experts largely praised the new model as thorough and impressive, while noting its remaining uncertainties.
“People should not look at this as a futuristic scenario of things that may or may not happen. They should look at it as the tragic story we are following right now,” said Eric Rignot, an expert on Antarctica’s ice sheet and an earth sciences professor at the University of California, Irvine, who was not involved in Wednesday’s study. “We are not there yet … [But] with the current rate of emissions, we are heading that way.”
Should the new research prove correct, it could trigger a “tectonic shift” in expectations for the speed and severity of the sea level problem, said Ben Strauss, director of the program on sea level rise at Climate Central, an independent organization of scientists based in New Jersey. He said that while the study’s findings represent potentially grave problems for many coastal areas in the decades ahead, the century beginning in 2100 could see truly catastrophic shifts, unless societies make sharp cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.
“Under the high emissions scenario, the 22nd century would be the century of hell,” Strauss said. “There would really be an unthinkable level of sea rise. It would erase many major cities and some nations from the map … That century would become the century of exodus from the coast.”
Places as far flung as South Florida, Bangladesh, Shanghai, Hampton Roads in Virginia and Washington, D.C., could be engulfed by rising waters, Strauss said. Even by 2100, Miami Beach and the Florida Keys could begin to vanish. New Orleans essentially could become an island guarded by levies. Floods that pushed as far inland as the surge from Hurricane Sandy could ravage parts of the East Coast with far greater frequency.
The researchers behind Wednesday’s study make clear that their model has limitations and that human behavior can alter the possible outcomes. For instance, the worst-case scenario — of seas rising nearly 4 feet due to Antarctic ice loss alone by 2100 — assumes that very high emissions continue for carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
In Paris late last year, world leaders forged an historic agreement to begin scaling back such emissions in coming years. They embraced the goal of holding global warming “well below” 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, but at the same time, it has been widely noted that current country-level commitments to cut emissions fall far short of this target.
But even under a more moderate emissions scenario, Wednesday’s study found that the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise still could reach about two feet by 2100, and much more by 2500. Only if countries sharply reduce emissions does the model show that it’s possible to preserve Antarctica in roughly its current state.
“This research highlights the importance of doing even much better than the Paris agreement if we’re going to save our coastal cities,” Strauss said.
DeConto and Pollard arrived at their projections about future sea level rise by first turning to the past. Their study is based on an improved understanding of two past warm eras in Earth’s history that featured much higher seas, known as the Pliocene and the Eemian. The Pliocene was a warm period about 3 million years ago, when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are believed to have been about what they are now — 400 parts per million. Sea levels are believed to have been significantly higher than now — perhaps 30 feet or more. The Eemian period, between 130,000 and 115,000 years ago, also featured sea levels 6 to 9 meters above current levels, with global temperatures not much warmer than our current era.
Sea level rise on the scale seen in those eras likely required a loss of ice not just from Greenland, but also from Antarctica. But previous computer models of Antarctica have failed to accurately reproduce such scenarios. Scientists had spent “years of struggling to be able to simulate tens of meters of sea level rise in the Pliocene,” DeConto said. “This has been a longstanding problem for us. And we had known for years that we’re probably missing some important underlying physics.”
Scientists already knew that key parts of Antarctica, and especially West Antarctica, feature a condition called “marine ice sheet instability.” That is, vast glaciers are already rooted below sea level and lie on downward sloping seabeds. Warm water can not only melt them from below, but as the glaciers retreat, more and more ice will be exposed to melting.
The new study factors in not only this process, but two new ice processes that have scientists already have seen destabilize several glaciers in Greenland: “hydrofracture,” in which water formed by the melting of snow and ice atop a glacier’s stabilizing ice shelf causes it to break up; and “cliff collapse,” in which a sheer ice cliff 100 meters or more above sea level becomes unstable and crashes repeatedly into the ocean below. Both phenomena can speed up the pace of ice loss from glaciers and cause sea level rise.
“Build a little sand castle and it is fine; too high and it may break,”said Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University who has published previously with DeConto and Pollard, describing the revelations regarding ice cliff collapse.
Knut Christianson, a glaciologist at the University of Washington in Seattle, said the new work will spur additional research to determine precisely what happens at glaciers where cliff collapses and so-called “calving” occur. “It’s a more comprehensive analysis than before, and it certainly indicates that we should look more closely to see whether or not the way they treat these processes in the model is accurate in the real world,” he said.
The research further undermines a string of sea level projections from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which have been faulted for being too conservative.
In 2013, the body projected that for the same high-end emissions scenario used in the current study, sea level rise by the year 2100 would be between 0.52 and 0.98 meters (1.7 and 3.22 feet), relatively little of which would come from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. It noted that beyond this likely range, only Antarctica’s marine-based regions could conceivably contribute a lot more, but the panel found that “there is medium confidence that this additional contribution would not exceed several tenths of a meter.”
The new study challenges that reasoning. It also emerges as mounting research has pointed at one region of Antarctica in particular — the Amundsen Sea sector of remote West Antarctica, centered on the enormous, marine-based Thwaites glacier — as particularly vulnerable.
If the projections in Wednesday’s study prove correct, they could present especially bad news for U.S. coasts. The reason is gravity: Antarctica’s enormous mass pulls the ocean toward it, and when it loses significant mass, seas would surge back toward the opposite end of the world.
“Sea level rise is not going to be felt evenly over the surface of the Earth. It’s really bad for New York, Boston. We are sort of in the bullseye,” DeConto said.
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
Washington Post on Florida Ocean Level Rise
At least The Washington Post covers archaeology helping inform the issue of global ocean level rise. Our yokel St. Augustine Record, being aligned with Governor RICHARD LYNN SCOTT, a/k/a "RICK SCOTT," and polluters like Koch Industries, does not give a fig about or future, or a hoot in hell about global warming. Thanks to The Washington Post for reporting the news, and the past.

Former University of Florida students Andrea Palmiotto and Melissa Ayvaz, with researcher Paulette McFadden, collect a sediment core in Horseshoe Cove on Florida’s northern Gulf Coast. (Stephen McFadden/Florida Museum o\
University of Florida students Rachelle Ianelli and Austin Jacobs, and Florida Public Archaeology Network representative Rachel Kangas, excavate the remains of an ancient household in 2015 at Garden Patch on Florida’s northern Gulf Coast. (Neill Wallis/Florida Museum of Natural History)
What Florida’s ancient past tells us about sea-level rise today
By Chelsea Harvey March 28 at 3:17 PM
The looming threat of sea-level rise is a cause for anxiety throughout much of the coastal United States, and Florida is one of the unlucky states most at risk. Miami, alone, is considered one of the most vulnerable cities in the nation — it’s already subject to frequent flooding and has plans to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on flood control in the near future.
But today’s Sunshine State residents are by no means the first Floridians forced to deal with the rising tides. In fact, some of the state’s earliest inhabitants were also forced to move and adapt in response to changing water levels thousands of years ago — and their history may provide some helpful insights into the struggles faced by today’s coastal dwellers.
This is the conclusion presented by a new study, published last week in the journal Geoarchaeology by researcher Paulette McFadden, a postdoctoral researcher at the Florida Museum of Natural History at the University of Florida. Since 2009, McFadden has been involved in field investigations along Florida’s northern Gulf shore, both on the mainland and on small islands in the adjacent marshes. Some of these sites contain evidence of human occupation stretching as far back as 4,000 years. McFadden became interested in how the placement of these sites may have been influenced by the changing environment throughout the millennia.
Regional studies have suggested that sea levels began to rise along the Gulf Coast following the Last Glacial Maximum, when the climate in the Northern Hemisphere began to substantially warm, and ice sheets started to melt.
“I was very interested in trying to understand how people in the past dealt with some of the same issues that we’re grappling with in our present life — mainly sea level rise,” McFadden told The Washington Post. “One of the things that I did learn during my research is that environmental change on the coast is a normal part of life, or it certainly was for the people in the past. So I wanted to know what kinds of strategies did they use when sea-level rise on the shoreline began to move inland.”
McFadden’s research focused on an area of Florida’s Gulf Coast known as Horseshoe Cove, which is located in the Big Bend, the general region where the panhandle meets the peninsula. The area is marked by wide marshes, a network of tidal creeks and numerous small islands, which contain archaeological deposits from human settlements as far back as 4,000 years.
To reconstruct the region’s coastal evolution over the past several thousand years, McFadden took sediment core samples from both exposed and submerged land along the coast and analyzed them to see what kinds of materials they contained and how old they were. This information helped her figure out what areas were underwater, and when, throughout history.
She also conducted archaeological excavations in the same region and used radiocarbon dating to figure out how old the human settlements in any given location were. Using this information, paired with her reconstruction of the coastline’s history, she was able to make inferences about how the early Floridians might have moved around in response to their changing environment.
She found that there was a strong correlation between environmental change and the timing and locations of human settlements throughout the centuries. Reconstructed maps of Horseshoe Cove from 2800 BC to after AD 200, using McFadden’s data, show the way the coastline — once dominated by solid land — gradually flooded and became characterized by salt marshes. At the same time, the sites chosen for human occupation throughout the centuries appeared to be dictated by where land was available and what the environment looked like at the time.
“They had very specific strategies,” McFadden said of the region’s early inhabitants. “When it was time for them to move because the sea level was coming up, they were targeting very specific areas on the landscape.” Settlements tended to crop up in areas bordering the marshes that would be protected from flooding and storm surges, but that also offered easy access to fishing and other marine resources.
“So as the sea level came up, they probably had ingrained in their culture these strategies and a knowledge that eventually they were going to have to move back away from the water,” McFadden said.
Interestingly, she noted that the region’s human inhabitants were also able to exert some long-lasting influences on the environment as well.
“The modern coastline in the Big Bend region is largely shaped the way it is because people lived there in the past,” she said. “They piled up shell and they piled up debris as they lived in an area, and some of those islands that I did the archaeological work on only survived today because the elevation was increased by people living in them.”
The work underscores the idea that human civilization and the changing environment have been closely tied up with one another for centuries — and that the struggles faced by modern humans, while heightened by the accelerating effects of anthropogenic climate change, have existed throughout the ages.
Moreover, this kind of archaeological work could even help modern humans better adapt to the changing landscape, McFadden suggested. For one thing, local archaeological studies can provide important insight into how different regions have responded to environmental changes over time, and that could help us make better predictions about how they’ll change in the future.
“For instance, my study area has remained relatively stable over about the past 1,500 years, and if you look at the east coast of Florida you see it’s eroding very quickly,” McFadden said. “Those kinds of wave-dominated areas are vulnerable to sea-level rise much quicker than the marsh-type areas. So what this tells us is we need to maybe focus our efforts toward those more vulnerable coasts right now.”
Indeed, local studies are the best way to get a good sense of any given area’s history and potential future, said Neill Wallis, an assistant curator of Florida archaeology at the Florida Museum of Natural History and one of McFadden’s supervisors. Scientists sometimes use data from one part of the world as a proxy for past sea-level rise all over the world, he said, which may not always be accurate.
“Those don’t really tell us always what happens in any particular location, because sea level can rise globally and we might not see much change in one area,” he said. “In that sense, I think all archaeological research that relates to climate change has to be done locally.”
What Florida’s ancient past tells us about sea-level rise today

Former University of Florida students Andrea Palmiotto and Melissa Ayvaz, with researcher Paulette McFadden, collect a sediment core in Horseshoe Cove on Florida’s northern Gulf Coast. (Stephen McFadden/Florida Museum o\

University of Florida students Rachelle Ianelli and Austin Jacobs, and Florida Public Archaeology Network representative Rachel Kangas, excavate the remains of an ancient household in 2015 at Garden Patch on Florida’s northern Gulf Coast. (Neill Wallis/Florida Museum of Natural History)
What Florida’s ancient past tells us about sea-level rise today
By Chelsea Harvey March 28 at 3:17 PM
The looming threat of sea-level rise is a cause for anxiety throughout much of the coastal United States, and Florida is one of the unlucky states most at risk. Miami, alone, is considered one of the most vulnerable cities in the nation — it’s already subject to frequent flooding and has plans to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on flood control in the near future.
But today’s Sunshine State residents are by no means the first Floridians forced to deal with the rising tides. In fact, some of the state’s earliest inhabitants were also forced to move and adapt in response to changing water levels thousands of years ago — and their history may provide some helpful insights into the struggles faced by today’s coastal dwellers.
This is the conclusion presented by a new study, published last week in the journal Geoarchaeology by researcher Paulette McFadden, a postdoctoral researcher at the Florida Museum of Natural History at the University of Florida. Since 2009, McFadden has been involved in field investigations along Florida’s northern Gulf shore, both on the mainland and on small islands in the adjacent marshes. Some of these sites contain evidence of human occupation stretching as far back as 4,000 years. McFadden became interested in how the placement of these sites may have been influenced by the changing environment throughout the millennia.
Regional studies have suggested that sea levels began to rise along the Gulf Coast following the Last Glacial Maximum, when the climate in the Northern Hemisphere began to substantially warm, and ice sheets started to melt.
“I was very interested in trying to understand how people in the past dealt with some of the same issues that we’re grappling with in our present life — mainly sea level rise,” McFadden told The Washington Post. “One of the things that I did learn during my research is that environmental change on the coast is a normal part of life, or it certainly was for the people in the past. So I wanted to know what kinds of strategies did they use when sea-level rise on the shoreline began to move inland.”
McFadden’s research focused on an area of Florida’s Gulf Coast known as Horseshoe Cove, which is located in the Big Bend, the general region where the panhandle meets the peninsula. The area is marked by wide marshes, a network of tidal creeks and numerous small islands, which contain archaeological deposits from human settlements as far back as 4,000 years.
To reconstruct the region’s coastal evolution over the past several thousand years, McFadden took sediment core samples from both exposed and submerged land along the coast and analyzed them to see what kinds of materials they contained and how old they were. This information helped her figure out what areas were underwater, and when, throughout history.
She also conducted archaeological excavations in the same region and used radiocarbon dating to figure out how old the human settlements in any given location were. Using this information, paired with her reconstruction of the coastline’s history, she was able to make inferences about how the early Floridians might have moved around in response to their changing environment.
She found that there was a strong correlation between environmental change and the timing and locations of human settlements throughout the centuries. Reconstructed maps of Horseshoe Cove from 2800 BC to after AD 200, using McFadden’s data, show the way the coastline — once dominated by solid land — gradually flooded and became characterized by salt marshes. At the same time, the sites chosen for human occupation throughout the centuries appeared to be dictated by where land was available and what the environment looked like at the time.
“They had very specific strategies,” McFadden said of the region’s early inhabitants. “When it was time for them to move because the sea level was coming up, they were targeting very specific areas on the landscape.” Settlements tended to crop up in areas bordering the marshes that would be protected from flooding and storm surges, but that also offered easy access to fishing and other marine resources.
“So as the sea level came up, they probably had ingrained in their culture these strategies and a knowledge that eventually they were going to have to move back away from the water,” McFadden said.
Interestingly, she noted that the region’s human inhabitants were also able to exert some long-lasting influences on the environment as well.
“The modern coastline in the Big Bend region is largely shaped the way it is because people lived there in the past,” she said. “They piled up shell and they piled up debris as they lived in an area, and some of those islands that I did the archaeological work on only survived today because the elevation was increased by people living in them.”
The work underscores the idea that human civilization and the changing environment have been closely tied up with one another for centuries — and that the struggles faced by modern humans, while heightened by the accelerating effects of anthropogenic climate change, have existed throughout the ages.
Moreover, this kind of archaeological work could even help modern humans better adapt to the changing landscape, McFadden suggested. For one thing, local archaeological studies can provide important insight into how different regions have responded to environmental changes over time, and that could help us make better predictions about how they’ll change in the future.
“For instance, my study area has remained relatively stable over about the past 1,500 years, and if you look at the east coast of Florida you see it’s eroding very quickly,” McFadden said. “Those kinds of wave-dominated areas are vulnerable to sea-level rise much quicker than the marsh-type areas. So what this tells us is we need to maybe focus our efforts toward those more vulnerable coasts right now.”
Indeed, local studies are the best way to get a good sense of any given area’s history and potential future, said Neill Wallis, an assistant curator of Florida archaeology at the Florida Museum of Natural History and one of McFadden’s supervisors. Scientists sometimes use data from one part of the world as a proxy for past sea-level rise all over the world, he said, which may not always be accurate.
“Those don’t really tell us always what happens in any particular location, because sea level can rise globally and we might not see much change in one area,” he said. “In that sense, I think all archaeological research that relates to climate change has to be done locally.”
Monday, March 28, 2016
Lobbyist, City Officials, Federal Grand Jury: OPA-LOCKA, FLORIDA CORRUPTION PROBED BY FBI CORRUPTION TASK FORCE (Miami Herald)
Here's some insight into what local Sheriff DAVID BERNERD SHOAR and his possible co-felons are sweating as the FBI Corruption Task Force investigation into St. Johns County corruption continues. Let justice be done.
Opa-locka’s ‘shadow’ force moves millions in city contracts
Dante Starks is at the center of an FBI probe into government kickback schemes
Powerful lobbyist wields enormous influence at Opa-locka City Hall
Secret recordings and videos capture corrupt payments between top city officials
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Dante Starks, left, Keith Carswell, center, and Bishop John Taylor, husband of Mayor Myra Taylor, speak after the Opa-locka state of the city address on Friday, Jan. 29, in Opa-locka. Shannon Kaestle skaestle@miamiherald.com
When the builder of a community center desperately needed to get paid nearly $1 million from Opa-locka, he received a call from the city’s most influential power broker.
Dante Starks said he could ensure the contractor would collect the money he was owed and even pick up more government work.
When the CEO of a waste-hauling company needed someone with strong connections to Opa-locka leaders, he turned to Starks to ensure the firm would keep its multimillion-dollar contract with the city for years.
In a community where money begets political favors at City Hall, Starks has known few equals in pulling the levers of government.
The 53-year-old lobbyist has helped steer millions of dollars in public works projects to clients, shut down police investigations and pushed successfully for the firing of a city manager — all after his own arrest on public bribery charges nearly a decade ago.
“Dante is the unofficial mayor of Opa-locka,” former Vice Mayor Steven Barrett said. “He has more power than [Mayor] Myra Taylor. He controls every department.”
Now, Starks is at the center of a federal investigation that threatens to topple him and a cadre of elected leaders in the most comprehensive corruption probe in Miami-Dade in decades.
The Miami Herald has learned that a federal criminal grand jury has issued 18 subpoenas to current and former City Hall employees — including a former city manager and past finance director — in a kickback investigation targeting Starks and nearly every public works project in Opa-locka in the past decade.
Starks, a former Miami-Dade police sergeant who has reaped hundreds of thousands of dollars for his role in steering contracts to clients, was placed on probation two years ago in an earlier corruption scandal for allegedly paying bribes to Commissioner Terence Pinder.
Since then, Starks has drawn the attention of federal agents for even more dealings, including alleged bribes paid between him and city commissioners and top administrators who were captured on secret tape recordings and videos, according to confidential sources.
Other targets include City Commissioner Luis Santiago and Daniel Abia, a longtime public works manager who now heads the building department.
Sources said FBI agents are examining “phantom” jobs created in the public works department as well as irregular bidding involving the city’s best-known development — the $4.3 million Sherbondy Village community center — a project rife with improper dealings in which Starks was a lobbyist.
So powerful was Starks over the years that he flouted local laws by failing to register as a lobbyist — until four months ago —while representing businesses with some of the largest government contracts in the impoverished city. He has also raised thousands of dollars for political campaigns to help commissioners get elected.
Despite repeated efforts by the Miami Herald, Starks did not respond to interview requests. Neither Santiago nor Abia returned calls.
Known for his brash style, Starks’ capacity to stay in power even after his prior conviction underscores his ability to manipulate the gears of government, working behind the scenes to pit one commissioner against another or threatening to line up votes to fire city managers.
A passionate speaker during commission meetings, he sometimes berates elected leaders over their actions, or heaps praise on them — all the while rousing citizens in the audience and sending a clear message of who is in charge.
“He’s got everyone thinking that he controls everything,” said former City Manager Steve Shiver, who was hired in September after he was contacted by Starks on behalf of the City Commission. “He’s got people planted all over.”
In a letter warning the Florida governor’s office of the city’s mushrooming economic crisis last fall, Shiver raised concerns not only about millions in debts but what he called “a shadow government” of outside forces — a direct reference to Starks.
In an interview, Shiver said he was struck by Starks’ frequent presence at City Hall, where he roams the halls, stops into offices to bark orders at department directors and even barges into the city manager’s office in the midst of meetings. His longtime girlfriend and the mother of his children, Kiera Ward, is the city human resources director.
Tom Marko, a former county budget analyst who was hired by Shiver in September, said he saw Starks at City Hall so often he thought he worked there — until he asked another employee. “He had no official power and yet he was essentially running things,” Marko said.
Added former City Clerk Deborah Sheffield Irby: “Did I ever wonder why he was there? Of course I did. ... He wasn’t there almost every day for nothing.”
A Carol City High School graduate who lives in Miami Gardens, Starks entered the “street politics” of Miami-Dade as an aide to former County Commissioner Dorrin Rolle — a career launched after Starks was forced to resign as a Miami-Dade policeman in 1997 over a host of sexual harassment complaints from female officers.
The connections he forged under Rolle — who was ultimately defeated for re-election in 2010 after the bankruptcy of his nonprofit social services agency — exposed him to the world of county lobbying and dealmaking required to land federal and state government contracts.
He quickly aligned himself with one of Opa-locka’s up-and-coming politicians, Terence Pinder, in a relationship that allowed both to tap into those contracts while trampling on the laws that regulate public funding.
For two years, Commissioner Pinder steered lucrative contracts to the contractors represented by Starks — money totaling $7.2 million in 2006 and 2007 to repair water lines, sewage pumps and roads.
In one year alone, Starks took in $465,000 in fees, while delivering envelopes stuffed with cash to Pinder and paying for the commissioner to stay at El Palacio Hotel and Resort in Miami Gardens. Starks even paid for the diapers for Pinder’s girlfriend’s children, records show.
Ultimately, both men were arrested in 2007 on a variety of corruption charges, including unlawful compensation. Not until 2014 — seven years later — did they reach a deal that allowed them to plead no contest to conflict-of-interest charges, leading to probation with no jail time. The Miami-Dade State Attorney’s office said the case unraveled when two key witnesses, including a disgraced city engineer, were deemed unreliable.
For seven years, Pinder was forced to stay out of office after his suspension by Gov. Jeb Bush. But Starks continued to roam City Hall in a string of controversial deals that cost Opa-locka hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Again and again, Starks appeared before the City Commission, lobbying on behalf of business contractors, thrusting himself in police affairs and getting jobs for friends in the public works department.
“He emerged even stronger,” observed Alvin Burke, a longtime city activist. “He would tell everybody in Opa-locka that if you want anything done, contact him, he could make it happen.”
While still facing the bribery charges, Starks took part in the city’s development of the Sherbondy Village community center, a two-story facility with a gymnasium and 250-seat theater that drew the attention of county ethics investigators and now, the FBI.
At first, the contractor hired to put up the center agreed to pay Starks $15,000 as a lobbyist at the behest of a partner in the venture, Henry Crespo, a former Opa-locka housing chief.
Crespo touted Starks as a “key leader in the city [who] ran the streets,” according to a county ethics report. But instead of paying Starks directly, the lobbyist arranged for the checks to be signed over to a company founded by a former city manager, Eddie Brown Jr.
In the ensuing months, a crisis unfolded that underscored Starks’ ability to exploit his ties to City Hall and press for even more money from the contractor. Shortly after the city fell behind on its payments to the builder, Starks came up with a plan.
“I hear you’re having some money problems,” Starks told the project manager, who was about to stop work on the center. Starks proposed the company give him $35,000 and he would use his influence at City Hall to make sure the builder was paid the money due: $900,000.
Rather than pay Starks, the project manager called for an urgent meeting with Miami-Dade prosecutors. County ethics investigators described the project as “tainted” and orchestrated by “unscrupulous firms and individuals,” but no criminal charges were filed.
While still under a cloud of suspicion, Starks thrust himself in the middle of another issue, but this time, it had nothing to do with government contracts.
For days, police commanders had been conducting an investigation into a sergeant for allegedly fabricating evidence against fellow officers in internal affairs cases in 2012. After Starks found out, he stormed into then-Chief Cheryl Cason’s office, demanding she shut it down. Michael Steel, the suspect, had been hired by a prior Opa-locka chief who was close to Starks — the two had worked together in the Miami-Dade Police Department years earlier, records and interviews show.
After Cason refused, Starks took his case to the highest level of government, prompting top administrators to end the case and allow Steel to keep his badge and gun. He would now be assigned to City Hall as the sergeant-at-arms.
Months later, another case unfolded that turned into a confrontation between Starks and a deputy police chief and, ultimately, reached the attention of the FBI.
Shortly after police began investigating a street minister with a long criminal history who was suspected of selling drugs, Starks went to Chief Cason again to drop the inquiry. Once again, Cason rebuffed Starks, leading to harsh words in the police station between Starks and Deputy Chief Antonio Sanchez.
The next day, City Manager Kelvin Baker called police and asked that they back off, records and interviews show.
In the ensuing years, Starks continued to cultivate a network of city leaders, including Mayor Myra Taylor, her husband, Bishop John Taylor, and Santiago, a newly elected commissioner. Starks was also instrumental in recruiting several top administrators.
But the man who became his choice for the city manager’s job last year turned out to be his greatest adversary: Steve Shiver, a former Homestead mayor and county manager.
Just weeks after commissioners voted 3-2 to hire the new city manager in September, Starks soon learned that Shiver was less compliant than his predecessors.
Starks asked the manager to stop demanding rent from the academy school inside City Hall — a school that already owed the city at least $400,000 in past rent. The city manager said no.
Starks asked Shiver to pay a sewer contractor $272,000 for work that was never approved by the City Commission. The manager said no again.
Starks asked the manager to forgive $10,000 in code enforcement fines to a wealthy apartment complex owner. Again, Shiver refused.
By the end of October, their differences would erupt at a public business forum in Opa-locka where Shiver was the guest speaker. Just moments after his speech, Shiver said he encountered Starks and told him to “stop stirring the pot.”
As the crowd looked on, Starks tore into Shiver, pushing him and cursing, Shiver said. Rather than counter Starks, the manager said he walked away.
In the ensuing weeks, Starks drew on the same power he assembled to hire Shiver — this time, to fire him, while Shiver, in turn, issued an order to staffers: Starks needs to register as a lobbyist, or stay out of City Hall.
Shiver fired off an email to the head of a New York company that handled the city’s garbage collections and retained Starks as a $5,000-a-month lobbyist. The city manager reminded the CEO of Universal Waste Services that Starks was not registered.
“The people of Opa-locka deserve better,” Shiver wrote to Universal’s Joseph Spiezio, whose firm hired Starks nine months earlier to help get an extension on its three-year, $7 million contract.
As the friction escalated, Starks formally submitted his paperwork to legally lobby, with Universal paying the $300 fee, records show.
Starks, however, struck back: He mobilized Mayor Taylor and Santiago to fire Shiver from his $150,000 job in late November, with Starks watching from the audience.
Moments later, as Shiver returned to his office to clean out his desk, Starks fired one more round. He called Michael Steel, the sergeant-at-arms, on his phone and ordered him to block Shiver from entering.
With the city on the edge of bankruptcy, Shiver’s termination sent the city into even greater chaos. Miami-Dade officials moved to audit the city’s shattered finances. State officials gauged whether to take over the city budget.
With city workers fretting over their future, Mayor Taylor assured a gathering at her state-of-the-city address in late January that Opa-locka’s “unwise decisions” and “difficult times” were behind them. “You can’t stop a moving train,” she said.
Six weeks later as she pulled up in her car to City Hall, the entire building was surrounded by dozens of FBI agents on a public corruption task force. For most of the day, the federal agents hauled away boxes of records, computer hard drives, emails and other evidence in a scene that spectators said resembled a Hollywood movie.
While agents questioned Mayor Taylor and other public officials, Starks was not around.
That morning, just as federal agents arrived at City Hall, he left through a rear door.
Michael Sallah: 305-376-3741, @MikeSallah7
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