From The New York Times:
Florida Democrats Win Special Election in Mar-a-Lago’s District
Emily Gregory’s victory in Palm Beach brought the Democratic surge to President Trump’s backyard, while a union leader leads in a race for a state senate seat vacated by Florida’s lieutenant governor.
Democrats on Tuesday flipped a Florida legislative district that includes President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, pulling off another upset in a state house election but this time one with obvious symbolic power.
Emily Gregory, a first-time candidate with a public health background, became the latest Democrat to win a special electionand claim a statehouse seat previously held by a Republican.
Across the state, another Democrat, Brian Nathan, a Navy veteran and electrical workers union leader, was leading a tight West Tampa race for a state senate seat vacated by Florida’s newly appointed lieutenant governor.
Since the 2024 presidential election, Democrats have flipped more than two dozen seats in Republican or battleground states — including ones in Arkansas and New Hampshire earlier this month — while the Republicans have not captured any Democratic seats.
Republican strategists have framed the losses as a natural regression following big gains in 2024 in Washington, D.C., and in state capitals across the country.
But Democrats see in the results a mounting anger in the electorate over Mr. Trump that could carry through November and the midterm elections. Ms. Gregory’s victory brought the trend into Mr. Trump’s backyard, in a state that has trended heavily Republican since its days as a perennial battleground.
“Floridians are tired of the chaos, corruption, and sky high prices on everything from groceries, to gas, and health care,” Nikki Fried, the chairwoman of the Florida Democratic Party, said in a statement. “They are voting for trusted leaders like Emily to steady the ship and return common sense, people-centered solutions back to our communities.”
A Democratic presidential candidate has not won Florida’s electoral votes since 2012, but this year, Florida has not been immune from the Democratic surge. Boca Raton, about 30 miles down the Atlantic coast from Palm Beach, elected its first Democratic mayor in 45 years earlier this month. That margin was narrow, but Miami voters in December overwhelmingly elected their first Democratic mayor in 30 years.
Palm Beach County, where Ms. Gregory scored her victory, used to be a Democratic stronghold, but Republicans have made major inroads in recent federal and local elections. The seat that Ms. Gregory won — District 87, along coastal Palm Beach County — had been held by State Representative Mike Caruso, a Republican, who won by 19 percentage points in 2024.
Mr. Caruso resigned in August after being appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis as county clerk, prompting Tuesday’s special election. Mr. Trump voted by mail in the race earlier this month, despite his ongoing national efforts to end vote by mail.
Ms. Gregory, 40, centered her campaign on the Democrats’ favorite word in the 2026 cycle, affordability, and zeroed in on housing and health care. She also highlighted her background as a mother of three, military spouse and small business owner.
Her opponent, Jon Maples, 43, a financial planner and former council member in Lake Clarke Shores, billed himself as a “conservative outsider” and “America First patriot.” Mr. Trump promoted his candidacy a few days ago at a Palm Beach Republican event, as Mr. Maples was facing a formal complaint that he did not live in the district.
In West Tampa, Mr. Nathan was trying to overcome a financial disadvantage and a lack of name recognition in his upset bid against former State Representative Josie Tomkow, a Republican, to fill a state senate seat vacated when Jay Collins, a Republican, was appointed lieutenant governor.
Republicans did win a special election Tuesday for a House seat to replace Ms. Tomkow, however, as Hilary Holley easily defeated Edwin Perez, a Democrat, to represent a district between Tampa and Orlando.
Beyond the symbolism, Ms. Gregory’s victory is not going to change the balance of power in a state legislature where Republicans hold a supermajority. Still, her term, which runs through the end of the year, promises to be eventful. Legislators still need to pass a budget before the July 1 deadline. Mr. DeSantis has also called for a special session in April to redraw Florida’s congressional map, in time for the 2026 midterms.
Ms. Gregory is expected to run again in the November general election for a full two-year term. A rematch against Mr. Maples is possible.
David W. Chen is a Times reporter focused on state legislatures, state level policymaking and the political forces behind them.
More on the 2026 Midterm Elections
Florida Special Election: Democrats flipped a Florida legislative district that includes President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, pulling off another upset in a state house election but this time one with obvious symbolic power.
R.N.C. Convention: Trump and the Republican National Committee are strongly considering Dallas as the site of an unusual midterm convention later this year, according to two people with knowledge of the discussions.
Thomas Massie: The Republican congressman from Kentucky is a die-hard libertarian who has centered his campaign on his willingness to buck President Trump. It has bought him the most expensive primary in the country.
Voting by Mail: The president has long fixated on mail-in voting to bolster his baseless claims of widespread voter fraud. But Trump recently used the method in a Florida special election. And the United States Postal Service service has consolidated and changed policies at some of its regional processing centers, which could lead to delays in postmarking and delivery of votes cast by mail.
Seizing Ballots in California: Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a candidate for governor, recently took possession of more than 650,000 ballots as part of a fraud probe. Election officials say his investigation is baseless.
Affordability Message: Driven up by the war in Iran, higher gas prices have complicated the Republican message on affordability, while Democrats see an opportunity to sell their economic pitch. Trump’s health care cuts may have also given the Affordable Care Act new resonance.
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