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Florida Democrats profess midterm optimism. ‘The reaction we’re getting from people is amazing.’
After years of falling further and further behind the Republicans and losing election after election, Florida Democrats are increasingly optimistic about the 2026 midterm elections.
This time, they believe, it isn’t just the usual wishful thinking.
At the Broward Democratic Party’s annual Obama Roosevelt Legacy dinner this past weekend, they reveled in recent victories — and heard party leaders warn about the perils of complacency and assuming that the voters’ mood in March will last until November.
“The reaction that we’re getting from people is amazing. They know what’s going on. They’re concerned about our democracy. We don’t have to tell them what’s going on. They know it and they’re enthusiastic about voting,” said Alan Ehrlich, who’s been active in the Democratic Party for decades.
He said he noticed a pronounced change in people’s reactions about five months ago.
Ehrlich, who goes door-to-door on weekends, said the passion among Democratic voters is so great that “I wish Election Day were tomorrow.”
Laurie Plotnick, of Parkland, president of the Democratic Senior Caucus of Florida, said in a separate interview that she too has picked up a different level of concern and interest among voters, not just Democrats.
She said it changed when people started feeling both their constitutional rights, and their well-being, were in jeopardy. “Unless they had a tremendous 401(k) at the beginning, it’s tough,” she said. “It’s no longer party, it’s policy.”
Rick Hoye, chair of the Broward Democratic Party, said there is reason for optimism. “Across this country, we are seeing signs that the tide is turning. Democrats are winning elections and gaining ground,” he said.
Local star
Almost 350 Democrats heard from members of Congress and state and county party leaders. By far the biggest reaction — a standing ovation and roar of approval — was when Emily Gregory was introduced.
She is the Democrat who won the special election in northeastern Palm Beach County to fill a vacancy in the Florida House of Representatives. By flipping territory long held by the Republicans — a district that includes President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home and resort — she garnered international attention.
Trump, who also won the district in 2024, endorsed the Republican who went on to lose.
State Rep. Christine Hunschofsky, D-Parkland, who becomes her party’s leader in the Florida House after November’s elections, said there is no guarantee that will keep happening.
“There is no mystical magical blue wave that is coming to save us in Florida. It is our work that creates the wave. It is knocking on doors. It is phone banking. It is fundraising. It is getting out in the community and not just telling people you care but showing them you care,” she said.
Especially important, Hunschofsky said, is personal contact. “Not on social media, actually in real life at the doors. If it was all about Twitter and Truth Social, we wouldn’t have state Rep. Emily Gregory.”
Hunschofsky said “people didn’t think she could win that race, so she said, what do I need to do?
“And what she did is she got out in her community, she listened to her neighbors, she listened to people in the community, and she did the work, and that’s why she won, and that’s the message to everyone,” Hunschofsky said. “You put in the work, you listen to the community, you reflect their values, and that’s how you win.”
Gregory also attributed her victory to contact with voters. “Every damn door,” was the campaign’s lodestar. “EDD. Go out and knock every damn door because that is how we won House District 87,” she said.
Even Florida?
Democrats haven’t won a top-tier statewide election in Florida since 2012, when President Barack Obama and then-U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson were running for reelection.
Since then, Democrats won the 2018 election for agriculture commissioner, and Republicans have dominated everything else, including in the congressional delegation, the state Senate and the state House of Representatives, where they hold outsized majorities.
That’s helped them raise far more money than Democrats.
Democrats are also significantly outnumbered in active registered voters. In Broward, Democrats are still far ahead of Republicans and in Palm Beach County Democrats have a slight edge in registered voters.
Andy Madtes, president of the Broward AFL-CIO, cited the same kind of shift described by Ehrlich and Plotnick.
“Don’t let anybody sow any seed of doubt in your mind that we cannot win because I’m out there every day with working people,” he said. “And I can tell you right now, there is no better poll when you’re talking to people face to face, and I know people who have buyer’s remorse right now.”
There isn’t extensive public polling of Florida right now. But a University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab poll released on March 1 reported the leading Democratic candidates for Florida governor, David Jolly and Jerry Demings, were within striking distance of Republican frontrunner Byron Donalds. They were 6 to 7 points behind Donalds.
The poll had similar findings in the U.S. Senate race.
Appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody was 7 percentage points ahead of Democrat Alex Vindman and 8 points against Democrat Angie Nixon.
State Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried, who won that 2018 race for agriculture commissioner, said there’s more data to suggest Florida Democrats could do well this year.
In Florida elections last year, there was a 17 percentage point movement toward the Democrats. By comparison, she said, the first year of Trump’s first term in office there Florida elections shifted more toward the Republicans by another 11 to 15 points.
In addition to the high-profile Gregory victory, Fried pointed to the March mayoral election in Boca Raton.
Though officially nonpartisan, Democrat Andy Thomson won, the first time in decades the office isn’t held by a Republican. In December, Democrat Eileen Higgins flipped the Miami mayoral election.
“Obviously we’re in the driver’s seat. There’s no doubt about that,” said U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, a Broward-Palm Beach county Democrat. “I’d rather be us than them, but, you know, the election is still six, seven months away.”
He said it was essential for Democrats to focus on what’s most important to people: affordability. “We’ve got to have a vision for America, not just the hatred for the Trump administration.”
Chris Marino, chair of the Broward Republican Party, said results of recent elections touted by Democrats don’t necessarily predict what will happen in the fall.
“Democrats picking up wins in low-turnout special elections— even in districts that typically lean Republican— is not an indicator of what we’ll see in November. Historically, the opposite is true. When turnout increases in a general election, Republican voters show up and these seats return to form,” Marino said via text. “That said, we’re not taking anything for granted.”
Carl Cascio, chair of the Palm Beach County Republican Party, offered a similar assessment in a recent interview. Still, he said, he’d use Democrats’ boasts that they’re doing well as part of the effort to encourage Republican voters to turn out in November.
Florida hasn’t elected a Democratic governor in decades. But Jolly, a former congressman, and Demings, the Orange County mayor, said 2026 could break that losing streak.
“Change is here. If the election were held tonight, we’d win,” Jolly said. “The affordability crisis is real. It’s bigger than that though. I think we’re in the midst of an economic crisis where half of the state has lost upward mobility, working harder than ever and falling behind.”
“Democrats are more motivated than ever and they’re turning out,” said Jolly, a former Republican who said the numbers required reaching out to no party affiliation/independents and Republicans who don’t like the state’s direction.
Demings, who repeatedly reminded voters that he has been a Democrat for decades, said this is the party’s year. “This is going to happen. This is going to continue to happen. We’re going to win in November. Watch and see Democrats,” he said.
Broward
Broward has more registered Democrats than any other county in the state. Illustrating the party’s significance in a statewide Democratic primary, Jolly, Demings, Vindman and Nixon were all at the county party’s dinner.
“South Florida is going to be important because of the large population that you have here,” Demings said in an interview. “I have to pay attention to it.”
Demings, the Orange County mayor, announced his candidacy 20 weeks ago, and since then said he’s made 11 trips to South Florida.
Jolly also has been spending a lot of time in South Florida since he announced his candidacy in June. He completed his paperwork to run at last year’s Broward Democratic Party dinner, he said.
The county once produced general election numbers for Democrats that were big enough that statewide candidates could overcome the Republican advantage elsewhere in the state. In recent elections, Broward turnout has lagged.
After touting the Palm Beach County results at the Broward dinner, Fried stepped away from the lectern to push Broward Democrats to step it up.
“It is time. It is time for Broward to get on the map again and make sure in 2026 it is Broward County coming on strong and hard in every single precinct,” Fried said.
“Broward, we are counting on you. We cannot win Florida if you are not all committed to the work that needs to get done,” she said. “It is now your turn to show up and show the rest of the counties of the state what the blue bubble is.”
Political writer Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.
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