At one point, when he asks the enthusiastic crowd several questions, I reckon you can hear me answer a couple of them, as when he asked who supported WILLARD MITT ROMNEY. (For example, you can hear me say, "the country clubs!!")
Whoever we Democrats nominate, we shall have a President who is cool, not cruel.
From South Florida Sun Sentinel:
Elizabeth Warren surges in Florida as Joe Biden slips; Trump does better in Florida than nationally
Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren surged in the latest Florida poll and is now in a strong second place behind Joe Biden who slipped since Florida Atlantic University's previous poll. President Donald Trump continues to perform better in Florida than nationally, the poll found. (Drew Angerer/Getty)
Elizabeth Warren surged to a strong second place among Democratic presidential candidates in a Florida poll released Wednesday, though Joe Biden remains in first place for his party 's presidential nomination.
The Florida Atlantic University poll shows Biden with 34% among Florida Democrats, a dip of 5 percentage points since May.
Warren stands at 24% – double the 12% she had in May.
“Elizabeth Warren is gathering strength and is becoming a real competitor for the state,” said Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist and research fellow at the university’s Business and Economics Polling Initiative. He said 24% is “a really good number for her. If I were one of her people, I would love this poll.”
Since the previous survey in May, the candidates have had three debates, and Biden has been a focus of attention for occasional campaign trail gaffes, a relatively light campaign schedule and sometimes rambling answers.
At the same time, Warren has been steadily increasing her support in nationwide polls as she’s become better known, continued issuing plans – a total of 44 as of Wednesday – covering everything from health care to climate change to improving military housing, and demonstrated stamina as she’s stayed long after her rallies to take selfies with any supporters who want them.
The FAU poll found little change for Bernie Sanders. He stands at 14% in the new survey, up 2 percentage points from May.
Biden had 57% of voters 50 and older. Warren was led with 33% among voters aged 30 to 49. Sanders had 40% of voters under 30.
Biden’s overall standing in Florida is better than the 28% he holds in the Real Clear Politics average of seven national polls of Democratic primary voters conducted in September. Warren averages 18% nationally and Sanders has 16%.
All the other Democrats were far behind in single digits in the FAU poll: Pete Buttigieg, 5%; Kamala Harris, 4%; Beto O’Rourke, 2%; Andrew Yang, 2%.
One startling number in the poll is 3% for Wayne Messam, the mayor of Miramar, who’s been running a virtually invisible campaign for president, raising little money and failing to make it into any of his party’s presidential debates. He’s the only Floridian among the Democratic candidates.
The survey was conducted throughout the state, and didn’t give any special weighting to Messam’s South Florida home base. Wagner said it could be a sampling quirk in which the poll reached pockets of people who are aware of Messam. Writing on Twitter, Messam said the 3% “shows that many voters still want something new and fresh. I offer both.”
Another 12 Democratic candidates collectively had support from 6% of those surveyed, with several at zero percent. “Someone else” was the choice of 6%.
Trump vs. Democrats
President Donald Trump fares relatively well in the poll against various Democrats.
In hypothetical head-to-head match-ups that compare Trump with Biden, Warren or Sanders, the race is essentially tied in Florida. In some national polls, Democratic candidates have fared better against Trump than they do in FAU’s poll of Florida voters.
“It’s a dead heat in Florida,” Wagner said.
That’s significant because Florida’s 29 electoral votes – more than a tenth of the 270 needed to win – are essential to the president’s hopes for re-election.
“Florida is a turnout state. That’s what we know. It’s closely divided, so whoever turns out their numbers a little bit more wins by a little bit,” Wagner said. In 2016, Trump won the state with 49 percent of the vote, 1.2 percentage points ahead of Democrat Hillary Clinton.
The match-ups:
- Trump, 50.1%; Warren, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, 49.9%.
- Trump, 50.5%; Biden, the former vice president, 49.5%.
- Trump, 50.5%; Sanders, a U.S. senator from Vermont, 49.5%.
Wagner said the match-ups are positive for Trump because voters are so familiar with the president’s pluses and minuses. For the Democrats, he said, months more campaigning could make people more aware of things they don’t like about their candidates which means there’s more potential for their support to go down.
One big caveat about the results: All are within the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In the Trump-Warren match-up, for example, that could mean Trump or Warren has 53% and the other has 47%.
In the hypothetical head to head match-ups, Trump does better against the potential Democratic challengers in Florida than nationally. In a Sept. 11 nationwide ABC News/Washington Post poll, Biden had 55% to Trump’s 40%. Warren had 51% to Trump’s 44%. Sanders had 52% to Trump’s 43%.
Trump approval
Opinions about the president remain about the same among Florida voters, with 49% approving of his performance and 46% disapproving, a net positive of 3 percentage.
“For him that’s actually pretty good. It suggests that he has a stronger base in Florida than he does in certain other states. Given how important Florida is in the election that’s good for him,” Wagner said.
Among men, 55% approve of Trump and 42% disapprove. Among women, 43% approve of Trump and 48% disapprove.
Both approval and disapproval of Trump has ticked up since May, with fewer people having no opinion. In the previous poll, his approval was 47% and disapproval 44%, which also gave Trump a net positive of 3 points.
FAU’s May poll was the first time during his presidency that more voters were positive than negative about his performance.
In September 2018, the same poll found 39 percent approval and 47 percent disapproval, a net negative of 8 percentage points.
The Florida findings continue the trend throughout the Trump presidency – he fares better in the Sunshine State than nationally. The Real Clear Politics average of eight polls conducted in September shows a national approval of 44 percent and disapproval of 53 percent, a net negative of 9 percentage points.
Republican challengers
Florida Republicans aren’t interested in considering anyone other than Trump for their party’s 2020 nomination.
The president had 85% among Republican voters.
His announced challengers were in single digits: Mark Sanford, 8%; Joe Walsh, 5%, and Bill Weld, 2%.
Fine print
The results come from an FAU Business and Economics Polling Initiative survey of 934 Florida registered voters conducted online and through automated calls to people with landline telephones from Thursday through Sunday. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Breakdowns for smaller groups, such as Democrats, Republicans and breakdowns by age, have higher margins of error.
Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com or on Twitter @browardpolitics
No comments:
Post a Comment