Southern Political Report: Florida Democrats Competitive Against Republican Congressional Incumbents

Grits

By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report

October 13, 2008 —Florida: Democrats Competitive in Congressional Races

Independent polls taken in three South Florida congressional districts suggest that at least two of the state’s three Cuban-American representatives -- all Republicans -- are facing tough opposition, with less than a month to go before the November 4 election. The surveys were taken in early October for WSCV Telemundo 51 by pollster Carlos McDonald.

● In the 25th District (Naples, etc.), three-term US Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) barely edged Joe Garcia (D), former chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party, by 43% to 41%, a very poor showing for an incumbent.

● In the 21st District (Miami, etc.), eight-term US Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) had 48% to 43% for Raul Martinez (D), former mayor of Hialeah, a better showing for the incumbent, but not a strong one.

● In the 18th District (Miami), US Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) had a more comfortable lead -- 48% to 35% -- over banker Annette Taddeo (D), though an incumbent under 50% shouldn’t rest on her laurels.

The races are highly contentious, with charges, counter-charges and “cheering and jeering” at joint appearances, according to the Miami Herald. Meanwhile, some 800,000 new voters registered to vote in the Sunshine State this year, reports The Hill newspaper, some 52% of them Democrats, 32% independents and only 21% Republicans. About 19% of the new voters are African-Americans, a higher share than their 16% of Florida’s population.

Virginia: Perriello (D) Gains Against Goode (R)

A SurveyUSA poll taken in Virginia’s 5th District (Charlottesville, etc.) in early October for WEBJ7 shows Democratic challenger Tom Perriello, a human rights lawyer and national security advisor, has made a significant gain in his challenge to six-term incumbent US Rep. Virgil Goode (R). Goode still leads 55% to 42%, but in mid-August, a poll by the same firm showed Goode ahead 64% to 30%. Given that Goode still has a 13-point lead, he is favored to win. However, the race is much more competitive than it was earlier, a sign that the post-Wall Street-melt-down surge for Obama is a rising tide that lifts all (Democratic) boats. More evidence of Perriello’s growing strength: US Sen. Jim Webb (D) endorsed Perriello Friday in a personal appearance in Charlottesville.

North Carolina: Kissell Leads Hayes

It’s 49% for second-time challenger Larry Kissell (D), 41% for fifth-term US Rep. Robin Hayes (R), says a SurveyUSA poll taken in the Tar Heel State’s 8th District (Concord, etc.) on October 4-5 for Roll Call newspaper. The poll is in line with a Democratic poll, taken September 28-29 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, which gave Kissell a 54% to 43% lead. In 2006, Hayes edged out Kissell by a razor-thin 329 votes. Kissell, a school teacher and former textile employee, has not been competitive on the money front, where at mid-year Hayes had $1,174,000 on hand to Kissell’s $232,000. The state Democratic Party has charged that in Hayes’ hefty war chest are generous contributions from “employers who hire illegal immigrants,” which the party links to Hayes’ votes on border security issues. Meanwhile, be on the look-out for the 3rd Quarter numbers, out soon.

Dixie’s Senate Races Could Impact GOP Leadership

When the Republicans in the US Senate gather at the Capitol the week after the November elections, the results of the US Senate races in Kentucky and Texas could determine the shape of the battles for the GOP’s leadership in the next congress. In Kentucky, where two recent surveys have shown the Senate race essentially tied, if Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) should lose his re-election bid to businessman Bruce Lunsford (D), then the lame-duck caucus will have to choose a new GOP leader. Roll Call newspaper reports there is already rumbling -- quietly, of course -- about a potential successor to McConnell should he lose. The name most mentioned is that of Minority Whip John Kyl (R-AZ), but US Sens. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) and Judd Gregg (R-NY) are also in the mix. And in Texas, where US Sen. John Cornyn (R) is in a tighter than expected race -- though still favored -- with state Rep. Rick Noriega (D), Cornyn’s expected interest in assuming the chairmanship of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) could be sidelined should he lose in this looming Democratic tsunami.